Lok Sabha elections 2019: In Bihar, it’s Modi factor versus caste, candidate

Pawan Kumar Singh says he is in a “dharma sankat”, a moral dilemma.

A small shopkeeper in Harnahi Bazaar, in Bihar’s Vaishali Lok Sabha constituency, Singh says he has tremendous respect for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate from the seat, veteran leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh.

“Raghuvansh babu is the epitome of integrity and simplicity. He was the best rural development minister India has had for decades. There is no one like him,” said Singh, who belongs to the Rajput caste, like the RJD leader and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidate, Veena Devi. So it would be safe to assume, given his admiration, that Pawan Singh would vote for Raghuvansh Singh.

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But that is where the dilemma emerges. “I don’t like Rahul Gandhi. Supporting RJD means supporting Congress. I think Narendra Modi deserves one more term in power. I am not a fanatical supporter of his. But it is wrong to call him ‘chor’ (thief). The Opposition is just not ready to run this country. There is no coordination among them. Didn’t Gandhi tear up the ordinance meant to protect Lalu [Prasad] ji?”

And would the local NDA candidate, Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) Devi, be a factor in determining his choice? “No no, who is voting for her here. It is a contest between Modi and Raghuvansh babu. The RJD will get Muslim, Yadav and some Rajput votes; Modi will get the rest.”

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In his response, Pawan Singh distils the three variables shaping the Bihar polls — Narendra Modi, the local candidate, and caste. It is the balance of these factors in each of the state’s 40 constituencies that will shape Bihar’s outcome.

HT travelled to four constituencies in the state. Hajipur, Saran and Muzaffarpur vote on May 6, while Vaishali votes on May 12.

Unnachak is a small market in the Saran constituency. The seat is witnessing a battle between former minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Chandrika Rai from the RJD. Rai happens to the father-in-law of Lalu Prasad’s son, Tej Pratap. In 2014, Rudy defeated former CM Rabri Devi here, while Lalu Prasad has held the seat in the past.

A group of men are sitting outside a shop, off the road. Rajiv Kamal is a Brahmin; Dharmendra Sah is a Bania; Manohar Sharma and Ashok Kumar Mahato are from subcastes categorised as extremely backward classes (EBC) in Bihar; and Arun Singh is a Rajput.

They are discussing politics, and there is an almost unanimous refrain that it is time to re-elect Modi for five more years.

When asked why he thought Modi should win, Sharma narrated what he saw as achievements. “We have better roads. There is housing in villages. There are gas cylinders. There is electricity. And look at how he entered Pakistan and attacked them. Which government thought of both the nation and the village earlier?”

From diverse communities within the Hindu fold, across constituencies, one hears similar sentiments about Modi — he is strong, he is honest, he has done what no PM has done, India needs him. Back in Saran, when asked what they thought of Congress’s promise of Nyay — the proposed scheme which guarantees income support of ₹72,000 annually to India’s poorest families — Mahato laughed.

“Have they given even ₹72 till now? Didn’t they rule this nation for 70 years? And suddenly they remember the poor because Modi ji has done so much for the poor.” In the entire conversation, the name of a candidate even as high-profile and well-known as BJP’s Rudy barely crops up. It is all centred on Modi.

To offset this Modi appeal, the Opposition is relying on the appeal of local candidates (as in the case of Raghuvansh Singh in Vaishali) or the unpopularity of the NDA candidate (as in Hajipur, where many are unhappy that Ram Vilas Paswan has left the seat for his brother, Pashupati Kumar Paras, who has limited appeal).

Fundamentally, however, it is relying on traditional voters and arithmetic. In the RJD campaign office in Saran’s Dairyapur, Harendra Prasad Yadav, a local leader, says that Muslims and Yadavs together constitute 35% of the electorate. “Modi or no Modi, this vote base will remain with us. Now go back to 2014. Rabri Devi ji lost by about 40,000 votes. But at that time, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) had put up a Muslim candidate. He got over 107,000 votes. This time, Muslims will not split and we will win.”

But will caste equations work out as neatly as in the past?

A candidate from the BJP is operating from his home in one of the constituencies that neighbours Patna.

The house is bustling with campaign workers. Propaganda and publicity material is spread out. Outside, supporters have congregated, waiting to meet the candidate.

Just then, in his private room, a party worker escorts another young man. He is introduced as someone based in a Punjab town, working in the “forces”.

The jawan is a Yadav. “Sir, I have taken leave and come to just help with your campaign. I want to promise you that I will work in my village and ensure that at least 500 votes for you. And these will be Yadav and some Muslim votes.”

The candidate’s interest is piqued. He asks his office to keep in touch with the new entrant. The Yadav jawan then added, “And we want nothing in return right now. Once you win, just ensure ‘vikas’ and security for all of us.”

After he leaves, the candidate turns around and suggests that not only are the BJP’s old supporters with him, they have been able to crack into the support base of the other side. “Yadavs will break this time.”

Even as the BJP hopes to crack into the Yadav vote, the RJD-led alliance believes it has widened its coalition considerably and will instead break into the BJP’s old base.

The RJD’s strength is its largely loyal Muslim and Yadav vote. But even as that is enough to put up a stiff fight, it is often not enough to win in a bipolar contest. That explains the party’s willingness to share seats — on rather generous terms — with a set of new allies.

An RJD leader who has campaigned extensively on the ground over the past month says, “We are banking heavily on Mukesh Sahni to get us Nishad/Mallah votes, on Upendra Kushwaha to get us Kushwaha votes, and Jitin Ram Manjhi to get us Musahar votes. I can tell you that the first two leaders are being able to transfer Nishad and Kushwaha votes more than we had thought. These votes would have otherwise gone to BJP.”

In Muzaffarpur’s Chandini Chowk, Ram Prasad, a driver, said he is with the alliance.

When asked for his reasons, Prasad says, “I like Modi. But my leader is Upendra Kushwaha. He is with Congress and Lalu Prasad. So I will stick to him.” But both the Yadav jawan and the Kushwaha driver may be exceptions to what appear to be set patterns.

Most Yadavs HT met were solidly behind the RJD-led alliance. And most Kushwahas, Nishads, and Musahars HT met were with the BJP. As Bihar votes in the fifth phase on Monday, the contours of the battle are now clear. Perhaps more than other states, BJP voters in Bihar see this as a Modi election, and are willing to overlook all other factors.

Indeed, NDA enjoys a huge advantage because of the Prime Minister, and the Modi voters of 2014 appear to remain with him in 2019. But on the other side is an alliance that draws its strength from local factors and has actively sought to broaden its social alliance.

The interplay of these factors will decide Bihar’s verdict.