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Happymon Jacob

Articles by Happymon Jacob

Challenges New Delhi faces in responding to Pahalgam

India will have to factor in domestic political compulsions, bilateral impact, and international perception as it debates its options

In a short, conventional military action-reaction scenario, it is hard for even a stronger military to emerge as a clear winner (Indian Army)

Opinion

Updated on Apr 27, 2025 07:59 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Power, not intentions, matter in international politics

There is no harm in focusing on one’s neighbour’s intentions but doing so by ignoring the consequences of its material power can be ruinous to one’s security.

World News

Updated on Apr 23, 2025 04:14 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Europe’s re-arming and the potential for India

Trans-Atlantic tensions and Europe’s return to classical geopolitics will mean India will have more options on the table

New Europe’s demographic challenges and rearmament requirements will need partners such as India for joint defence production, ammunition, and skilled, cheaper labour (Hindustan Times)

Opinion

Published on Apr 13, 2025 07:25 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Thinking beyond the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy

If you take a look at recent conversations with neighbours, it is clear that India’s South Asia policy is increasingly shedding the pretext of non-reciprocity.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (second from left) with heads of states from India’s neighbouring countries during the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok. (AFP Photo)

India News

Updated on Apr 07, 2025 02:00 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: A charter for India to negotiate global chaos

New Delhi must make its strategic choices carefully to ensure its place at the table when a new world order is constructed

India must keep away from hard-balancing strategic challenges. We cannot know for sure now what the global balance of power will look like when the dust settles (AP)

Opinion

Published on Mar 30, 2025 09:20 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: What India should do in a Taiwan military contingency

A forcible reunification of Taiwan by China will have serious geopolitical implications for Asian balance of power and for India

Delhi will have to consider what exactly it can do to help Taiwan to defend against Chinese military aggression. And at what cost. (File Photo)

Analysis

Updated on Mar 24, 2025 02:32 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Age of pessimism in world politics

One of the striking features of the current age of pessimism is that the pursuit of global good is no longer what dominates the global discourse today

Amidst such collective pessimism, States are doing what they think they must. Some are scrambling to defend themselves, some are securing their spheres of influence, some are seeking to dominate others, some are finding ways to reduce dependencies, and some are learning lessons from the misfortunes of others (Bloomberg)

Opinion

Published on Mar 16, 2025 07:28 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Time for Indian mediation in the Ukraine war

The argument that India must wait until it becomes more powerful to mediate in global conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, is misguided.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Italy in June 14, 2024. (PTI Photo)

India News

Updated on Mar 10, 2025 12:03 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Necessity underpins the new India-EU bonhomie

One of the reasons why India and Europe will grow closer in the days ahead is because much of the world they disagreed about no longer exists

If the two sides can keep aside their differences and engage in a realistic and purposeful dialogue, based on common interests, we might see the emergence of a major voice in the international system (@narendramodi)

Opinion

Updated on Mar 02, 2025 08:35 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Three strongmen and the world order, 80 years apart

If the great power consensus remains between Russia and the US, India may have little to worry about. But, if it includes China, it could be a cause for concern

The February 18 US-Russia talks in Riyadh are expected to pave the way for a summit between Trump and Putin. (AP File)

Analysis

Updated on Feb 25, 2025 05:54 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Trump 2.0 is also an opportunity for India

The US president’s disruptive politics will reshape the world order. New Delhi must seize the moment

While India will need to accommodate some of Trump’s demands, it is also essential for India to seek favourable deals from the US (PTI)

Opinion

Published on Feb 16, 2025 08:14 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

The Trump factor in India’s China policy

Delhi may need to recalibrate its balancing of power equations in the event of a rapprochement between Washington and Beijing

Neither an open rivalry nor a great power rapprochement between the US and China serves Indian interests (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File) (AP)

Opinion

Published on Feb 02, 2025 09:05 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

The balancing China question before India

India’s China problem is not going away anytime soon; China will continue to be a profound grand strategic issue for us.

The external balancing of China must carefully engage in finding the right kind of partners, ensuring partnerships don’t lead to undesirable expectations (Photo by Indian Army/AFP)

Opinion

Updated on Jan 19, 2025 07:49 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | India’s Afghan policy must avoid extremes

There is no shame in engaging the Taliban, however reprehensible the Taliban may be and however immoral that might look to some people.

Foreign secretary Vikram Misri meets Afghanistan acting foreign minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on Wednesday. (Randhir Jaiswal - X/ANI)(HT_PRINT)

Analysis

Updated on Jan 13, 2025 08:25 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | A new chapter for India’s regional strategic policy

India’s neighbourhood ties will have its wins and losses in the neighbourhood, and it must learn to take them in its stride.

Amritsar: Border Security Force (BSF) personnel stand guard along the India-Pakistan border fence during a cold and foggy winter morning, at Border out Post (BOP) Pulmoran, near Amritsar, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (PTI Photo/Shiva Sharma) (PTI)

Opinion

Published on Jan 06, 2025 08:44 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Geopolitical pressures trump Delhi’s minority concerns in the neighbourhood

India's neighbourhood policy has undergone a seismic shift, prioritising strategic alliances over the well-being of minorities linked to it.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake meet at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Monday. (Narendra Modi - X)

Analysis

Published on Dec 30, 2024 07:21 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Foreign policy experts must listen to the street

This indeed serves as an important indicator of societal preferences that should be taken into account during policy deliberations

External affairs minister S Jaishankar’s larger point that foreign policy cannot be formulated without considering societal preferences and trends is valid (ANI/Ishant Chauhan)

Opinion

Updated on Dec 22, 2024 08:28 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | How minilateralism is reshaping global order

Minilateralism is on the rise today for several reasons. The primary reason is the failure of multilateralism and the emergence of global challenges.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel look on, as Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping, while world leaders gather for a group photo during the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Leah Millis/Pool/File Photo (REUTERS)

Opinion

Published on Dec 08, 2024 10:15 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: The temptation to de-dollarise

For New Delhi, an imperfect global financial system led by the US is perhaps preferable to a “more egalitarian” China-led global financial system.

A woman counts US dollar bills. (Reuters Photo)

Business

Updated on Dec 03, 2024 04:21 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: Ukraine war in the grand chessboard of geopolitics

The Ukraine war marks 1,000 days, with Russia gaining an upper hand. Western support has been insufficient, and future dynamics remain uncertain.

While Ukraine has certainly lost a considerable amount of territory to Russia, today it is a much more determined and cohesive nation with a far more consolidated non-Russian identity than ever before in its history (via REUTERS)

Opinion

Updated on Nov 24, 2024 07:30 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

The Trump inflection on US foreign policy

Unless his second term differs dramatically from the first, we can expect a mostly disinterested and extractive approach to global engagement by Washington.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes the stage to address supporters at his rally, at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 6, 2024. (REUTERS)

Opinion

Updated on Nov 07, 2024 07:03 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

The ideational dimension of India’s China challenge

While there is good news from the LAC, the China challenge to India is a long-term one that has both material and intellectual/ideational elements.

Indian and Chinese army soldiers exchange sweets along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) near Karakoram pass in Ladakh on Thursday. (AFP)

Opinion

Published on Nov 03, 2024 08:20 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy: These BRICS can’t construct a new world order

For India—neither fully status quoist nor revisionist—a middle path is inherently preferable, a stance not shared by its key BRICS partners

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with other world leaders at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, earlier this month. (AFP)

India News

Updated on Oct 28, 2024 06:30 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | The new template for dialogue with Pakistan

A clinical minimalism focussed on conflict management appears to define New Delhi’s engagement with Islamabad

In this photo released by the Press Information Department, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, center, China's Premier Li Qiang, fifth left, Belarus Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, fourth left, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, sixth right, Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, fifth right, Tajikistan's Prime Minister Kokhir Rasulzoda, fourth right, and other leaders pose for group photo at the opening session of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. AP/PTI(AP10_16_2024_000072B)(AP)

Opinion

Updated on Oct 21, 2024 11:22 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | The age of nuclear adventurism

One key lesson many states are drawing from the Russia-Ukraine war is that a nuclear-armed Ukraine would have been better off.

In this photo distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, a view of the strategic nuclear-powered submarine missile cruiser Prince Vladimir of the Borei-A project, as Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspects the military and social infrastructure facilities of the Northern Fleet as part of a working visit to the Murmansk Region of Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)(AP)

Opinion

Published on Oct 14, 2024 07:00 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | A year after the Hamas strike, insecurity grows

Israel’s disproportionate response and failure of global powers and institutions to enforce a ceasefire have plunged the world into a crisis

People cross a bridge with the date 7.10, marking the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, in Ramat Gan, Israel, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)(AP)

Opinion

Published on Oct 06, 2024 11:56 PM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Tensions in the Middle East will Test India’s balancing Act in the region

With a neighbourhood in turmoil, an aggressive China, and pressure of Russia-Ukraine war, the last thing Delhi would like to have is conflict in the Middle East

People hold pictures of Lebanon's Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah who was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, during a symbolic funeral in Baghdad, Iraq, September 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier al-Sudani(REUTERS)

Analysis

Published on Sep 30, 2024 08:00 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | Shift in Europe’s framing of the Ukraine conflict

The growing criticism of the West’s moral plank regarding Ukraine and Gaza appears to have forced a change in the Western narrative

Emergency services workers look to move rubble and find injured after a Russian strike on a residential building in Kharkiv, Ukraine early Sunday Sept. 22, 2024. (Kharkiv Regional Military Administration via AP)(AP)

Opinion

Published on Sep 23, 2024 07:00 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | Ukraine’s fighting against time and the clock is ticking

Ukraine is fighting on many fronts: A war with Russia, fighting for global attention, for help from the US and Europe, and to keep up the morale of its people.

People walk along the embankment of Dnipro river in the city center of Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday Sept. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)(AP)

Opinion

Published on Sep 16, 2024 07:00 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

Grand Strategy | Why Seoul, Delhi need more ambitious ties

India’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific provide an opportunity for Seoul and Delhi to discover each other’s strategic potential

South Korea and India fans wave their national flags during the archery mixed team elimination round during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games at the Esplanade des Invalides in Paris on August 2, 2024. (Photo by Punit PARANJPE / AFP)(AFP)

Opinion

Published on Sep 09, 2024 07:00 AM IST

ByHappymon Jacob

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Happymon Jacob

India will have to factor in domestic political compulsions, bilateral impact, and international perception as it debates its options

There is no harm in focusing on one’s neighbour’s intentions but doing so by ignoring the consequences of its material power can be ruinous to one’s security.

Trans-Atlantic tensions and Europe’s return to classical geopolitics will mean India will have more options on the table

If you take a look at recent conversations with neighbours, it is clear that India’s South Asia policy is increasingly shedding the pretext of non-reciprocity.

New Delhi must make its strategic choices carefully to ensure its place at the table when a new world order is constructed

A forcible reunification of Taiwan by China will have serious geopolitical implications for Asian balance of power and for India

One of the striking features of the current age of pessimism is that the pursuit of global good is no longer what dominates the global discourse today

The argument that India must wait until it becomes more powerful to mediate in global conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, is misguided.

One of the reasons why India and Europe will grow closer in the days ahead is because much of the world they disagreed about no longer exists

If the great power consensus remains between Russia and the US, India may have little to worry about. But, if it includes China, it could be a cause for concern

The US president’s disruptive politics will reshape the world order. New Delhi must seize the moment

Delhi may need to recalibrate its balancing of power equations in the event of a rapprochement between Washington and Beijing

India’s China problem is not going away anytime soon; China will continue to be a profound grand strategic issue for us.

There is no shame in engaging the Taliban, however reprehensible the Taliban may be and however immoral that might look to some people.

India’s neighbourhood ties will have its wins and losses in the neighbourhood, and it must learn to take them in its stride.

India's neighbourhood policy has undergone a seismic shift, prioritising strategic alliances over the well-being of minorities linked to it.

This indeed serves as an important indicator of societal preferences that should be taken into account during policy deliberations

Minilateralism is on the rise today for several reasons. The primary reason is the failure of multilateralism and the emergence of global challenges.

For New Delhi, an imperfect global financial system led by the US is perhaps preferable to a “more egalitarian” China-led global financial system.

The Ukraine war marks 1,000 days, with Russia gaining an upper hand. Western support has been insufficient, and future dynamics remain uncertain.

Unless his second term differs dramatically from the first, we can expect a mostly disinterested and extractive approach to global engagement by Washington.

While there is good news from the LAC, the China challenge to India is a long-term one that has both material and intellectual/ideational elements.

For India—neither fully status quoist nor revisionist—a middle path is inherently preferable, a stance not shared by its key BRICS partners

A clinical minimalism focussed on conflict management appears to define New Delhi’s engagement with Islamabad

One key lesson many states are drawing from the Russia-Ukraine war is that a nuclear-armed Ukraine would have been better off.

Israel’s disproportionate response and failure of global powers and institutions to enforce a ceasefire have plunged the world into a crisis

With a neighbourhood in turmoil, an aggressive China, and pressure of Russia-Ukraine war, the last thing Delhi would like to have is conflict in the Middle East

The growing criticism of the West’s moral plank regarding Ukraine and Gaza appears to have forced a change in the Western narrative

Ukraine is fighting on many fronts: A war with Russia, fighting for global attention, for help from the US and Europe, and to keep up the morale of its people.

India’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific provide an opportunity for Seoul and Delhi to discover each other’s strategic potential

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