The current instability in the global order is neither India’s making, nor can it alter it. However, India can choose the manner of its engagement with this instability and potentially influence outcomes in its favour. If so, what should be some of the fundamental tenets of India’s engagement with the current instability in the global order? Let me outline five broad strategies for India that I believe will result in the least costly geopolitical outcomes for the country.

Instability and indeterminacy call for hedging one’s bets rather than revealing one’s cards. Such a strategy would avoid committing to any specific side in geopolitical competitions among rival powers or blocs, given the uncertainty regarding the eventual outcome of such contestations. While aligning with a rising power or coalition is often a smart move, doing so in the absence of a clear winner is foolish. If you view international politics as a struggle for survival, power, and influence, or all three at the same time, choosing sides becomes a critical issue.

India’s decision-makers are adept at balancing competing sides of which we have numerous examples. If there was ever a time to celebrate and put to practice India’s time-tested balancing acts, it is now. As foreign minister S Jaishankar would characterise it: “This is a time to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play.” Let me add to the list: Build more minilaterals, stress brotherhoods in West Asia, underline the Indo in the Indo-Pacific, woo the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean), and promote Australia and New Zealand.

The second strategy for these times is to keep away from hard-balancing strategic challenges. While it makes perfect sense for India to keep the focus on its primary contradiction, China, this may not be the right time to adopt a hard-balancing approach against it. The rationale is simple. China’s primary contradiction, the United States (US), is not keen on balancing China’s rise, and there is little clarity that the Americans will jump into the fray if other countries decide to balance China, a rising superpower. More importantly, we cannot know for sure now what the global balance of power will look like when the dust settles. Given such uncertainty, it makes little sense for India to pick a fight with China. New Delhi must hold its horses, and it appears to be doing so. And yet, it must engage in the indirect balancing of China by creating economic, geopolitical and other conditions in the broader region that could dissuade Chinese aggressive behaviour, including towards India.

The third strategy should involve a clinical focus on one’s own interests, and a clear understanding of the mutual goals to pursue with like-minded countries, while avoiding ideological commitments and being careful not to fall victim to our own rhetoric. This is the time to pursue clear-headed national interests, as no sheriffs are strutting around to discipline others, without mixing them up with ideological commitments (Global South or non-alignment) and our own rhetoric with clear achievable objectives. Ideology in international politics is a powerful tool, and rhetoric provides it with the necessary embellishment: Taking either ideology or rhetoric for anything more than that would be lacking in clarity of strategic thought.

A fourth strategy to deal with an indeterminate and unstable international environment would be to seek tangible outcomes through agile and trusted minilateral arrangements. We must build resilient supply chains and focus on the upkeep of regional public goods, among others.

Finally, these strategies must be pursued while keeping an eye on the future. The indeterminacy and instability in the global order will not last forever; it will eventually stabilise, leading to a defined balance of power and the establishment of institutional and normative structures for global governance, leading to the creation of haves and have-nots within the system. We were part of the have-nots in the now defunct order. So, Delhi must not only ensure that it doesn’t end up on the losing side but that it is at the table when a new world order is constructed. This is the most difficult challenge and the most important task for Indian diplomacy today – to read the tea leaves correctly, align with the forces of the future, and show up when consequential deliberations take place, wherever and whenever they do, on whatever issue.

Changes in the global order don’t happen very often. But when they do, they have immense consequences for all States. Delhi has a unique opportunity today to shape some of those consequences in its favour.

Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is editor, INDIA’S WORLD magazine. The views expressed are personal