For over two months Israel has enforced a complete blockade of the strip. It has prevented food or medicines from entering and cut off electricity supplies, which means desalination plants and many pumps have been unable to function. Israel has severed aid before but this is the longest blockade since the war began after Hamas’s massacres of October 7th 2023. Militarily Gaza has been stuck in limbo since the collapse of a ceasefire in late March. The fighting is less intense, with the weekly death-toll about half what was before. In total 52,000 Gazans have now been killed, including combatants.

The aid cut-off has led Palestinians and aid organisations to warn of starvation and even famine. The charges are especially loaded because claims of imminent famine in 2024 by international organisations, together with the stated intention of some Israeli politicians to deny Gaza food, bolstered the case for the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants against Israel’s leaders for war-crimes and an ongoing case in the International Court of Justice on genocide. Those predictions of famine turned out to be badly wrong. Yet the idea that Israel is prepared to use food for leverage is right.

Today Israel insists sufficient supplies of food and medicine surged into the strip in the seven-week ceasefire to sustain its civilians: around 25,000 trucks’ worth in total. It claims shortages are manufactured by Hamas, which seized supplies and is manipulating food markets to fill its coffers, pay its members and control the population. Israel accuses naive or complicit aid groups of turning a blind eye.

Yet on the ground there is no doubt of severe suffering. Grocery shops stand empty, bakeries have closed and communal kitchens are overwhelmed by desperate families who might receive one hot meal a day at most. “The main warehouse we use to distribute food in Gaza City is now empty,” says Olga Cherevko, a UN spokesperson. “We recycle water many times,” says a former civil servant in the city. Tents are next to piles of solid waste. “People live like animals,” says Khaled Dawas, a doctor.

Food prices have rocketed. Some items cost 700% more than before the war, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). A sack of flour that used to cost 50 shekels ($14) goes for 1,200 ($330). The WFP delivered the last food from its warehouses on April 25th. Akram, a teacher displaced from north Gaza, sends his sons to queue with a pot. One day they got bean stew, the next, soup. The family of five supplements this with pasta and cans of tuna stockpiled in the ceasefire. They have not gone a full day without food, one yardstick of famine. But “we go to sleep hungry each night”. Akram’s stash will run out in two weeks. There is a glut of cooking oil: there is no fuel.

Agricultural land in the south of the strip is under Israeli occupation. Some 78% of greenhouses are damaged or destroyed, along with 72% of the fishing fleet. Only 1% of Gaza’s pre-war chickens remain. Malnutrition, especially among children, is rising. Gaza’s health authority, overseen by Hamas, says 57 people have died of starvation since the start of the war. Sources in international agencies say these deaths were probably caused by pre-existing conditions but malnutrition may have been a contributing factor.

Even Israeli officials admit that food for the general population will run out in weeks. The IDF’s new chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Eyal Zamir, appointed for his toughness, has said the army will not use starvation as a military tactic. Officers have urged Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, to resume supplies. But the IDF also wants to disrupt what remains of Hamas’s economic networks. One idea floated is to withdraw from circulation the 200-shekel note, used in Gaza, in order to annul Hamas’s reserves.

For now the focus is on the new plan. With the backing of America, Israel will establish “distribution hubs” in Gaza. A representative of each family will be allowed to collect a package of food and hygiene products that will last for two weeks. Eventually there could be ten hubs, but initially just one or two will be established in the south as a pilot. The IDF will secure the convoy routes to the hubs and their outer perimeters. Private American “contractors”, a more respectable term for mercenaries, will provide security inside. On May 4th a forum of UN agencies and other NGOs said the plan was “dangerous, driving civilians into militarised zones to collect rations, threatening lives”.

The plan has huge flaws. It leaves the Palestinians reliant on subsistence-level rationing indefinitely. It is not clear how hospitals and refugee shelters will be supplied. A shadowy international foundation has been set up to pay for the contractors, but no details have been given as to its donors (America’s government is involved). Israeli officials expect aid organisations will eventually capitulate and offer to help once they realise this is the only way aid will get into Gaza without Hamas being in tacit control.

The aid plan is meant to complement the IDF’s military operations. The cabinet on May 5th also authorised the “expansion” of ground operations, although the details have yet to be specified. Some ministers are demanding Israel occupy the entire strip, corralling Gazans around the aid hubs. General Zamir opposes this, warning it would endanger the hostages in Gaza and that the IDF may not have enough troops. Either way, no maneuvers are expected for at least two weeks until reserve units are called up.

Mr Trump is the only person with any clout when it comes to the Israeli prime minister. Mr Netanyahu is concerned the president will be urged by the Arab leaders to pressure Israel to return to the original ceasefire agreement. Israel is unlikely to go ahead with its plans if the Americans withdraw their support. Gaza is becoming Israel’s forever war, and Gazans’ perpetual hell.