India may log bumper wheat and maize output

India is likely to produce a record 115.4 million metric tonnes of wheat this year, the agriculture ministry said on Monday, making its second advance estimates.

Higher federally fixed guaranteed prices and conducive weather prompted farmers to expand the area planted with high-yielding seed varieties.

India is the world’s biggest wheat producer after China and produced 113.3 million tonnes of the winter-sown grain in 2024, according to the farm ministry. A top industry body however said the crop was nearly 6% lower than the government’s projections.

“Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Central Government is continuously working towards the development of the agricultural sector. We are taking major steps to enhance farmers’ income,” said agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in a statement.

The country had banned wheat exports in 2022 after an early summer and a rise in temperatures during February and March that year shrivelled the crop.

India is set to witness a similar rise in temperatures in March across most wheat-growing regions, the India Meteorological Department said late last month in a forecast. Analysts said higher temperatures could threaten the wheat crop.

Wheat millers have urged the government to cut or scrap the 40% import duty on the grain to facilitate at least 2-3 million tonnes to end speculation in the markets, according to Navneet Chitlangia, president of Rollers Flour Millers’ Federation of India.

Rainfall across the country’s northwest region, a major wheat growing belt, has been almost 80% below normal since the beginning of the year.

The area under wheat stood at 32.5 million hectares as of late February, up 2% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. The grain is sown from October to December and harvested in March.

Summer-sown rice output is expected at 120.7 million tonnes, while rapeseed and chickpea output are expected at 12.9 and 11.5 million tonnes respectively, Monday’s data showed. Maize, another key cereal, is expected to be 24.6 million tonnes, higher than last year by nearly 2%.