Polar Vortex Collapse explained: Why the US, Canada, and UK are bracing for severe winter conditions
After Feb dumped a wave of unconditionally severe winter weather in the US, March is about to unleash those conditions again due to the polar vortex collapse.
After last month’s polar vortex collapse, a second one is expected to unleash freezing conditions across North America. With the winter weather phenomenon predictions eyeing a mid-March comeback, parts of Canada and the United States could be submerged in deep freezes, possibly even impacting travel as was seen in the previous cycle.
The UK and Europe may also end up facing the brunt of the extreme winter weather. “We are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex on the Europe and eastern Canada side of the polar,” AccuWeather’s Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok told the Independent.
“When the Polar Vortex is disrupted - whether stretched, displaced, or split - it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream. The timing is uncertain for North America but could see a change in the pattern for late March into early April.”
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Disruptive cold temperatures in the US due to the polar vortex collapse
The polar vortex has been “considerably stronger” than usual this year, according to Laura Ciastro, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, per CNN. Ideally, this should’ve meant that the US would be saved from record-breaking cold. However, that hasn’t been the case because the polar vortex has been stretching into weird shapes, Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said.
Conventionally, a strong polar vortex is circular, like a rubber band, as it rests on a surface untouched. But what’s happening now is that it is stretching into a more oblong shape, which happens when energy circling the atmosphere smashes into the polar vortex. Cohen explained that the polar vortex has been shifting shapes back and forth from a normal to a stretched state at an unusual frequency this year, which is resulting in all the cold snaps.
What is the polar vortex collapse?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes a polar vortex as a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles. The term “vortex” itself refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that keeps the colder air near the poles.
A ‘collapse,’ on the other hand, happens when the layer between six and 31 miles above the Earth’s surface heats up to 50 degrees in less than two days. Scientifically understood as sudden stratospheric warming, or as Cohen explained, a stretched polar vortex can shift the jet stream farther south, allowing more cold air to spill into the US, Canada, the UK and Europe.
The February polar vortex collapse already brought about a severe wave of winter storms and cold temperatures.
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Human-cause climate change influencing the jet stream?
Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, weighed in on the ongoing highly debated issue of why the US is witnessing extreme cold outbreaks in an overall warming world.
“There are multiple ways that human-caused climate change is having an influence on the jet stream, but it’s never clear which factor is the most important one in any given event, like the cold spell happening now,” she explained, per CNN’s report. “It’s always a combination (of factors), and it’s always complicated.” She also explained that the frequency of such extreme cold events could possibly increase eventually. Even though they “won’t be quite as cold over time as the air generally warms,” they’re still “going to be just as disruptive.”
