The NOAA firings can be a test case. The agency’s severely depleted strength will dent climate monitoring, research, and modelling given it plays a strategic role in all of this across the globe. A chunk of ocean data in India’s immediate periphery comes from NOAA, illustrating how serious the situation could get for the subcontinent. Beyond downsizing, there could be a threat from a possible trimming of NOAA infrastructure too — its extensive network of satellites, ships, and more than 4,000 buoys and floats complements its skilled staff. With NOAA’s annual budget averaging $6-7 billion between 2015 and 2023, and another $3 billion earmarked for the agency under Biden-era laws for specialised mitigation functions over five years from 2023, Trump’s “cost-cutting” axe could fall on this too.

Almost exclusive reliance on one country — without accounting for climate saboteurs getting sweeping powers — has led the world here. The need is for a reset in international collaboration in climate research. New multilateral arrangements where the burden of action including funding and responsibility of leadership are not vested with one country, or just a few, and instead are more broad-based must be urgently struck, to guard against a total collapse of mitigation efforts. The non-US West and the large developing economies must be the counterweight to Washington. This will also be an opportunity to reform and rejuvenate the UN framework on climate action and the larger UN ecosystem and reorient it towards genuine multilateralism.