Groundhog Day: More winter ahead or spring soon? How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil's prediction?

The Groundhog Day legend continues with the world-famous soothsaying Punxsutawney Phil’s annual prediction about winter. According to AccuWeather, an immensely large crowd gathered at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on February 2 to catch the psychic rodent’s weather forecast.

Musical act Lights Out, The Killers, Sir Rosevelt, Otis Day and the Knights played over the speakers as more speeches followed at the event, setting the stage for the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle introduction. The crowd went crazy chanting and cheering on Phil’s name as the seer of seers finally saw his shadow at around 7:25 am ET, predicting six more chilly weeks ahead.

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Pennsylvania governor strictly against PETA's petition for Punxsutawney Phil's retirement

Sunday also marked the meteorological forecasting rodent’s first Groundhog Day as a father. Last year in March, he and his groundhog wife Phyliss gave birth to two babies, who were eventually named Sunny and Shadow. Before the big reveal, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro took a swing at PETA’s petition to replace the groundhog tradition with a vegan cake “weather reveal” so that Phil and his family could retire to a “reputable sanctuary.”

“Some folks out there who say we should take this great tradition and get rid of Phil and replace him with a cake, that’s their crazy idea,” the governor said on Sunday. “Hear me on this Punxsawtawney, if anybody comes for Phil, they’re gonna have to come through me and all of you am I right.”

How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day predictions?

Even though the annual ritual associated with the furry prognosticator dates back to 1887, according to the Associated Press, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions to a sold-out crowd haven’t always come true.

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spokesperson told Newsweek that the furry seer’s predictions have been wrong 70% of the time in recent years. All accurate predictions occurred in 2016, 2020 and 2024 during the past 10 years’ timeframe – each time hinting at an early spring after not seeing his shadow.

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“In 2024, Phil forecast an 'early spring' when he didn't see his shadow and predicted six weeks of spring temperatures. In fact, the contiguous United States saw above average temperatures in February and above average temperatures in March of last year. Phil was spot on in his forecast,” NOAA’s National Centres for Environmental Information said on the website.

However, Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting groundhog seer. Buckeye Chuck, enjoying the spotlight in northern Ohio, made a different call, predicting an early spring arrival. His predictions began in the 1970s. In 1979, the Ohio General Assembly declared him the official State Groundhog. Last year, a whistle pig named Murray debuted as the new Buckeye Chuck.