What led the AAP govt in Punjab to act against farmers?

The trigger for the decision appeared to be widespread discontent among industrialists and the business community that was conveyed in informal settings to party chief Arvind Kejriwal. And forming the backdrop was the upcoming Ludhiana West assembly bypoll and the outsized importance of Punjab and the upcoming 2027 assembly polls to the AAP, which once nurtured ambitions of expanding nationally but is now left with only one province.

“The clearing of roads has been well-received by every segment in urban and semi-urban areas, especially those who have to travel for work. In rural areas also, there has not been much adverse reaction because most people felt that such a prolonged stir was not needed. All these factors were considered before taking action as we have just two years left now,” said a state cabinet minister.

“These frequent protests have been a big hindrance. We should have done this earlier. It was high time action was taken,” the minister added, requesting anonymity.

Farmers, under the banner of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (non-political) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, have been camping at the Shambhu and the Khanauri border points between Punjab and Haryana since February 13 last year after security forces did not allow them to march to Delhi to press for their various demands.

Besides a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Prices, the farmers are demanding a debt waiver, pension for farmers and farm labourers, no hike in electricity tariffs, withdrawal of police cases and “justice” for the victims of the 2021 Lakhimpur Kheri violence. Reinstatement of the Land Acquisition Act 2013 and compensation to the families of farmers who died during a previous agitation in 2020-21 are also part of their demands.

The ice broke on January 19 when the Centre proposed talks on February 14. But seven rounds of talks involving the farmers, the Punjab government, and Union ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Piyush Goyal remained inconclusive.

Tensions at the border escalated late on Wednesday, shortly after the seventh round of talks ended in a deadlock, as a police force, comprising over 3,000 officers, began clearing the area. The move took even the participating Union ministers by surprise.

Authorities moved to remove the protesting farmers, leading to minor skirmishes as the dispersal was enforced. Police detained several farm leaders, including Sarwan Singh Pandher and Jagjit Singh Dallewal, who began his indefinite hunger strike on November 26, 2024 at the Khanauri border. He has consistently refused medical aid by the Punjab government.

The Punjab government justified the decision and said businesses were incurring heavy losses – reversing its earlier stand of support for the farmers – even as the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress hit out at the AAP. Politically, it appeared to be a bit of a gambit for chief minister Bhagwant Mann, but people aware of discussions said that the decision was calculated and discussed for weeks, based on the four factors listed above.

The first was dwindling support for the agitators among urban areas in Punjab and business communities – many of whom are Hindus, who form 39% of the state, compared to the Sikh population, which is around 58% – who complained that their losses were compounding because of the two closed border points. Unlike in 2020-21, there was no widespread support for the farmers among the non-agricultural communities.

“The removal is a big help for businesses. The road blockades had hit the business sentiment in the state. People had stopped travelling by road and the cost of transportation also went up,” said Amit Thapar, chairman of CII’s northern region export committee.

A two-time AAP legislator, requesting anonymity, said that the frequent protests by farmer unions, sometimes unrelated to agriculture, and the resultant inconvenience to the public have led to a decline in their support.

This impression was conveyed by business groups to the AAP leadership and even Kejriwal, who attended Vipassana at Dhama Dhaja Vipassana Centre in Hoshiarpur’s Anandgarh village between March 5 and 10, and later met party brass and Ludhiana industrialists.

This influenced the second factor – the AAP’s internal dynamics. The fledgling party is still smarting from its loss in last month’s Delhi assembly polls, which has left it with only one state under its control , Punjab. It won a mammoth majority in the state in 2022 but its governance model is built on similar lines as Delhi – a focus on the individual popularity of CM Mann and an array of welfare promises. The party didn’t perform as per expectations in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – it won 27% of the vote in 2024, compared to 41% in 2022 – and even though it won the mayoral elections in four out of five cities in December’s urban body polls, it failed to get a decisive mandate. All this, coupled with the BJP’s slow but steady growth in the state, pointed to weaknesses for the AAP in urban areas.

Complicating matters further was the upcoming assembly bypoll in Ludhiana West, an urban area. Bypolls are routine for incumbent governments but the significance of this contest – whose dates are yet to be announced – are enormous for the AAP. The party has fielded its Rajya Sabha member, Sanjeev Arora , from the seat, fuelling speculation that Kejriwal will seek the vacated Upper House berth once the bypoll is done. A decisive victory was a necessity for the Mann government, especially with elections scheduled in early 2027.

The third factor was also related – the impression of a governance deficit. The AAP stormed to power on a promise of a welfare bonanza at a time the state wanted change, but has since been beset by governance and economic challenges. Opposition parties have routinely accused the government of being in limbo, of welfare promises being inadequately implemented, and of a drift in administrative capability. The same impression was conveyed to Kejriwal and Mann in recent meetings, said party insiders who did not wanted to be quoted, adding that they were also told that the inability to quell the protests and open the borders was affecting the state’s investment climate and government’s image. The leadership was convinced of the need for decisive action, the people cited above added.

Cabinet minister Tarunpreet Sondh said the closure of Punjab’s borders and highways caused huge losses to the state’s economy and disrupted the lives of ordinary citizens. “The closure of highways led to skyrocketing costs for logistics and daily essentials, hurting every section of society. Businesses suffered, and the perception of Punjab as an investor-friendly state took a hit at both national and international levels, leaving the state government with no other choice,” he said.

Helping the government in this quest was the fourth factor – the internal fractures within the farm movement that weakened the protests. SKM which successfully led the 2020-21 agitation was first cleaved when one faction contested the 2022 polls. The other faction, SKM (non-political) and Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, which were leading the current protest, was also bogged down by internal dissension over BKU-Ekta Sidhupur president Jagjit Singh Dallewal’s fast-unto-death and the lack of consensus on their unity talks with SKM.

The first sign of the state government losing patience came in March, when Mann walked out in the middle of a meeting with leaders of the Samyukt Kisan Morcha to persuade them to call off their March 5 protest. Then, his government was able to thwart a week-long protest planned in state capital Chandigarh without much backlash, showing the government that public support was likely on the wane.

“The reaction to the government action in rural Punjab has been mostly muted except in a few districts such as Moga, Sangrur, Muktsar, because the farmers unions no longer have the same support they did in 2020. They are also divided, though they did try to join hands. There was also a fatigue factor, as their stir was not going anywhere,” a senior AAP lawmaker said.

“The police action was done at the behest of traders and industrialists. Punjab finance minister (Harpal Singh Cheema) has himself told the media that the protests were causing inconvenience to traders. This is a betrayal by the Aam Aadmi Party, which is acting as the ‘B team’ of the Bharatiya Janata Party. We have decided to launch a nationwide protest and chakka jam (blockade of traffic) and hold demonstrations outside the offices of district commissioners across Punjab. We will finalise a new phase of protests soon. We demand immediate release of all farmers taken away by police,” said Gurdeep Singh Chahal, the media coordinator for the farm outfits, said.

This, coupled with growing pressure from the Centre and the fact that the BJP-ruled Haryana had decided to not let the farmers in, appeared to have sealed the agitation’s fate.

Just six months ago, it appeared that the second farm stir was on the cusp of a breakthrough. The Congress was considered the frontrunner to win Haryana and speculation was rife that it would allow the farmers to march through the state to Delhi. The Punjab government was backing the agitation and another stir at the Capital’s doorstep seemed imminent. That was not to be. The Congress lost. And now, Punjab too has decided that it can no longer back the farmers.