“The election is to Parliament and I can say that the average Muslim, whether she votes for UDF or LDF has stepped out to vote against the BJP and its divisive politics,” said ET Mohammed Basheer, the national organising secretary of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), and sitting Member of Parliament (MP) from Ponnani. The Muslim vote is the prize catch in the state because, at 27% of the population, Muslims in Kerala dominate not just what happens in the Malabar region, but in other southern seats such as Thiruvananthapuram where the margin of votes is key to victory. Unlike other states in the country, the community’s allegiance to either bloc is not dependent on the religious identity of the candidate. Voting, instead, is a more emotional decision. It is governed by the perception of sincerity demonstrated by the UDF and LDF during the campaign, an analysis of previous election results reflects.

The fawning fronts

In the run-up to this year’s campaign, both blocs have actively positioned themselves as guardians of the minorities, particularly the Muslims, by avowing their allegiance to protecting their rights better than the other. New slogans, monickers, and guarantees in their manifesto reveal the fervent appeal made to the community that is usually known to vote as guided by religious leaders. While the LDF wrestled with the central government (and the Election Commission) opposing the decision to conduct polls on a Friday, a day of prayer for the Muslims, the Congress oiled its way into the community’s good books by promising to address the issue of income inequality in its manifesto.

Speaking at a rally in Malappuram exactly a month before the election on March 26, Kerala chief minister (CM) and CPI(M) politburo member Pinarayi Vijayan appealed to voters for support in the district where Muslims and Christians account for 72% of the electorate. According to the 2011 census, Muslims account for 70.24% of the district's population, according to the 2011 Census. He created a stir at the same rally when he attributed the coinage of the popular slogan “Bharat Mata ki Jai” to Azimullah Khan, supposedly a prime minister under the Maratha ruler Nana Saheb II, and “Jai Hind” to former Indian diplomat Abid Hasan. To match the star power of the CM, Hibi Eden, the sitting MP of Ernakulam sought the support of Malayalam movie star Mammootty to appeal to the Muslims in the constituency where KJ Shine is contesting on a CPI (M) ticket.

Both fronts, however, speak in one voice concerning the Citizen (Amendment) Act, the National Registry of Citizens, and the Uniform Civil Code. None of these shall be implemented, the UDF and LDF have said at multiple public rallies, often assuaging the Muslims who fear unfair treatment if these laws were to be promulgated.

“It is an even contest in most of the 20 constituencies and this year’s contest was not a friendly match. The star campaigners from both sides have been acerbic since it is an existential fight for both the UDF and the LDF. If Congress is fighting for a chance to be in power at the centre, the LDF’s fight is also existential. By faring poorly in the Lok Sabha election in Kerala, the CPI(M) runs the risk of losing its status as a national party," said NP Chekutty, author and political analyst.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, on the contrary, were a consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes where both communities voted in favour of the Congress-led front. The UDF won 19 of 20 seats with an absolute banger of performance, with Rahul Gandhi leading the pack with a landslide victory, polling over four lakh votes in Wayanad. The election was an emotional issue for the Hindus who were upset about the LDF’s stance on the Sabarimala temple and its shoddy handling of a delicate issue. And so, the LDF clocked about 36%, losing out by 4% from its 2014 share. The CPI (M) and CPI put together secured a 31% vote share.

Also read: Lok Sabha election 2024: 88 seats, Kerala highest. 5 facts about phase 2 polling

Kerala Muslims: Voting pattern and bargaining power

The larger Malabar region houses eight seats, from Kasargod in the north to Palakkad in the centre, and each constituency has a minimum of 30% Muslims giving them a veto over voters from other faiths. They form the key vote bank in 14 districts and can influence the margin of victory significantly.

The two main religious influencers are the Samastha Kerala and the Kanthapuram Moulavi. Kanthapuram in Calicut district is where the general secretary of the All India Sunni Jamiyyathil Ulama, or the India Muslim Scholars Association sits. The current general secretary AP Aboobacker Musliyar is known to wield much power over the Sunni sect and influence their voting preferences. Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama, on the other hand, is the main Sunni-Shafi'i Muslim scholarly body in Kerala and administers mosques and madrasas. The Left and Congress have, over the years, tried their best to have both groups support them. However, this time around, while the Kanthapuram Maulavi is with the Left, Samastha has pledged support to the IUML and the UDF by extension.

Results of the CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey in 2019 revealed that 65 percent of Muslim votes and 70 percent of Christian votes went to the UDF, while the LDF managed 28 percent of Muslim votes and 24 percent of Christian votes. However, in the 2021 assembly elections, Muslims and Christians threw their weight behind Pinrayi Vijayan and helped him to the CM’s chair for the second time.

The Muslims, as a community through the Indian Union Muslim League, one of India’s oldest political parties, began gaining favour in the 1950s and 60s. In 1964, after the CPI split and became two units, the ensuing election in 1965 proved how critical support from the Muslims and IUML was, said NP Chekutty. The CPI distanced itself from the CPI(M) for the latter having aligned with a ‘religious party’ and paid a heavy cost. The CPI(M) was the largest party and had the League’s support, with the CPI winning just three of the total 133 seats at that time in the Kerala state assembly.

“The Muslims' ability to be in a commanding position despite being an electoral minority comes from three factors: The demography, their ability to vote as a homogeneous group, and their spreading influence into central and southern Kerala,” said Chekutty. Kottyam and Kochi in central Kerala were dominated by the Christians and institutions supported by the Church. However, in the last two decades, with a greater number of Christian youth emigrating to Europe and the US, Muslims flocked back to India from the Middle East.

“Success through opportunities in the Gulf has led many Muslims to come back to Kerala and establish businesses here. That and distributed power among the Christians and their inability to be influenced by the Church are also factors that allow the other side to consolidate political and economic interests,” Sreejith Panicker, a political commentator based in Trivandrum said. Kerala is home to nearly sixteen sects of Christianity with Sunnis and Bohras dominating religious and business interests respectively in the state.

With neither the Left nor Congress wanting to antagonise the Muslims and the League, the results would indicate which bloc used the community’s allegiance to their advantage. “The minority decides who is going to win the majority. The League and the Muslims have never been in a stronger position,” said Panicker.

Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad. Each week, Southern Lights examines the big story from one of the five states of South India.