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Published in the International Journal of Environment and Climate Change recently, the study, titled - Assessing Climate Change Resilience in Central India: A Regional Indicator-Based Approach and Agro-Climatic Zone Mapping - evaluated 102 districts spread across four states: Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Southern UP— highly susceptible to erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and drought-like conditions.

“Low resilience means these districts have limited capacity to absorb climate shocks, whether in agriculture, water availability or public health,” explained Adhav, lead author. “It is a combination of high exposure, low agricultural productivity with inadequate adaptive infrastructure and social support systems.”

The latest study used 50 sub-indicators, including rainfall deviation, forest cover, population density, literacy rates, crop insurance, irrigation coverage, and road infrastructure, grouped into three key components: climate exposure, agricultural productivity and climate adaptability. These were synthesised into a Composite Climate Change Resilience Capacity Index (CCRCI) using principal component analysis (a statistical technique used to assign weights to individual indicators in a dataset while retaining most of the original information) coupled with standard index development procedures and visualised through GIS mapping.

While only 28.71 % of districts were rated as ‘highly resilient’, a majority (43.91%) were found to have moderate resilience. The remaining 36 districts, which constitute nearly 30% of the study area, lack both institutional and ecological buffers to cope with climate variability.

“Districts with low resilience scores typically face a dual burden—on one hand, they are highly exposed to climatic variability like drought and erratic rainfall; on the other, their capacity to adapt is severely constrained due to poor infrastructure, lower literacy, and limited institutional outreach. These areas require immediate attention and targeted intervention for climate adaptation planning,” said Adhav, adding that moderately resilient districts can cope to some extent but remain vulnerable under intensified climate stressors.

Some of the least resilient districts identified in the study include Bhopal, Damoh, Guna, Morena, Panna, Sidhi, Tikamgarh, Ratlam in Madhya Pradesh all of which scored poorly on key indicators such as health infrastructure, forest cover, and literacy rates. Other low-resilience areas such as Sheopur (MP) and Durg (Chhattisgarh) faced a combination of environmental and institutional stress, including frequent droughts, poor road connectivity, and limited livelihood diversity. In contrast, Ahilya Nagar in Maharashtra was classified as highly resilient due to better forest cover, road infrastructure, and lower population density.

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Districts such as Sangli and Kolhapur in Maharashtra and Raipur in Chhattisgarh also performed well, attributed to relatively better access to education, markets, and public services. All the selected districts from southern UP show low to moderate resilience, revealing inefficiencies in policy implementation.

“The spatial variation in climate resilience across districts reflects not only ecological differences but also disparities in governance and infrastructure,” said H N Singh, co-author and climate adaptation researcher. Further, Chaitanya Adhav explained - “Districts with higher investments in public goods—like education, roads, and forest management—tend to have stronger buffers against climate risks in agriculture.”

Across central India, climate change is manifesting in region-specific ways, with significant implications for agriculture, water security, and rural livelihoods. In Maharashtra, a study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology projects a temperature rise of 1–2.5 degree Celsius by 2050, particularly affecting districts such as Pune, Solapur, and Satara. The state has also seen a marked increase in extreme weather events, including the recurrent floods that devastated Konkan and Western Maharashtra, disrupting agricultural activities and damaging infrastructure. Additionally, there have been series of climate events connected to untimely rainfall and drought over central Maharashtra and Vidarbha over the past five years.

Both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are witnessing intensifying similar climate stresses, with tangible impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. The Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change (2022) flags a rise in heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and droughts, contributing to worsening water scarcity and crop failures in major agrarian belts. Similarly, the Chhattisgarh State Action Plan on Climate Change and Human Health (2024) highlights the growing frequency of extreme weather events and rainfall decline, which are undermining rain-fed farming and triggering health impacts such as vector-borne diseases and acute respiratory infections.

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According to Singh, the study is a call for more granular and regionally tailored climate planning. “Most adaptation policies are designed at national or state levels, but climate vulnerability is hyper-local,” he said. “Our findings make the case for district-specific investments, especially in education, natural resource management, and decentralised infrastructure.”

In Madhya Pradesh, a 2023 study published in the Journal of Water and Climate Change, analysed long-term rainfall patterns using high-resolution gridded data from 439 India Meteorological Department (IMD) grid points. The study found a significant decrease in annual, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfall, with a notable increase in pre-monsoon rainfall.

The analysis identified shifts in rainfall patterns in 1998 (monsoon, annual), 1955 (pre-monsoon), 1987 (post-monsoon), and 1986 (winter). The maximum average annual rainfall reduced from 1,769 mm to 1,401 mm after 1998, affecting water availability. These long-term climatic shifts are indicative of how communities dependent on predictable monsoons and traditional crop cycles are now grappling with uncertainty, water stress, and declining productivity. To address the vulnerabilities in low-resilience districts, the study also recommended promoting water harvesting and land-use diversification to mitigate environmental stress, as well as enhancing institutional support systems, such as rural agricultural extension services and disaster preparedness mechanisms. The importance of ecological restoration and community-led natural resource management as long-term strategies for building climate resilience from the ground up was also listed.

“Resilience is not just about technology or infrastructure,” Adhav said. “It also depends on social capital, governance, and the ability of communities to anticipate, plan for, and respond to climate events.” The study concludes by urging policymakers to integrate regional resilience mapping into climate adaptation frameworks, particularly within the government’s ongoing agro-ecological zoning and rural development strategies.