NDA begins seat sharing talks for Bihar assembly polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies have begun the process of identifying seats that will be divided among the partners for the upcoming polls in Bihar, and on the table could be swapping of seats between partners, depending on the winnability of the candidates, said two persons aware of the details.

There is broad consensus among the allies that Chief minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar will be the face of the election in the state.

The JDU, Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (RV), and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) are part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that will jointly contest the polls, scheduled to take place in October-November.

According to a senior BJP leader, the process of identifying seats will precede the candidate selection and all the partners will be consulted.

“We have also had discussions on how to increase the NDA’s tally from 125 in 2020. One option that will be considered is swapping seats between allies to ensure that the overall strike rate and numbers go up. For instance, a seat that is traditionally ours (BJP) but we have not won it in the last two elections, could be given to an ally with a stronger chance of winning it,” the BJP leader said. The process will be followed for seats held by the other allies too.

The leader, however, asserted that “winnability” will be the prime factor in deciding the seat allocation.

In 2020, the JDU won 43 of the 115 seats it contested; the BJP won 71 of 110; the LJP (RV) contested 137 seats but won a single seat; HAM won four of the 7 it contested. RLSP was not part of the NDA then, and the Vikaasheel Insaan Party (VIP) won four of the 11 it contested, taking the NDA’s score to 125.

The BJP is also hopeful of a “better performance:” given the popularity of the leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Kumar and the “better coordination” between the cadres.

The decision to fight as a coalition will coalesce the strength of the partners, said a senior JDU leader. “For the first time we had an NDA outreach covering all the districts of the state. Last time there was a problem (with LJP attacking JDU), which led to losses...this time there is not only coordination between the top leaders, but the cadre on the ground is in step,” the leader said.

On the seat sharing arrangements, the JDU leader said, “The outcome of the 2020 assembly polls and the 2024 general election is an indication of which party can stake claim to how many seats based on their performance. Each party has a certain stronghold, but it is par for the course that they will want more seats to contest. Therefore, the seat allocation will be decided on two factors, the strength of the party in a particular constituency and the heft of the possible candidates.”

The leader suggested that seat sharing could be on the lines of the 2020 polls, when the bigger parties the JDU and BJP got the larger chunk of the seats. But, stressed that the selection of candidate will be done to ensure that the caste equation of the seat is not disturbed.

“Even if the seat is transferred from one partner to another, we will ensure that the caste balance is maintained...we cannot upset the caste equations by giving the seat to a candidate who cannot pull votes that are dominant,” the leader explained.

The JDU leader said the financial aid announced by the union government for Bihar in the annual budget with projects worth ₹60,000 crore has bolstered the NDA’s votebank.

“The Rashtriya Janata Dal peaked in 2020, and they are not adding any more voters to their base...on the other hand the union government’s announcement of infrastructure projects such as airports, Makhana (foxnuts) board, and expansion of IIT-Patna has created a larger constituency of beneficiaries that will add to the NDA’s core vote bank,” the leader said.