HT Explains: A 5-point FAQ on the Lok Sabha battle in Punjab
Farm unions have disrupted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BKP)’s campaign, blocked its candidates from entering villages, and called for their boycott
Punjab’s all 13 Lok Sabha seats will go to the polls in the seventh and the last phase of the polling on June 1 with farm crisis emerging among the major issues. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is contesting on its own even as it managed to ally with the Congress in neighbouring Haryana and Delhi. Here are the five questions that will matter in deciding the 2024 contest in Punjab, which is set for a four-cornered contest:
What impact will the farm crisis have?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is bearing the brunt of the farmers’ anger. Farm unions have disrupted the BJP’s campaign, blocked its candidates from entering villages, and called for their boycott. This is likely to hurt the party’s rural outreach, which is critical since the BJP is contesting on its own in the state for the first since 1996. The BJP depended on its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for the rural votes in elections between 1996 and 2019. It needs to increase its footprint beyond the Hindu-dominated urban pockets to expand its base. Opposition from the farmers has also cast a shadow on the party’s well-choreographed inductions of Sikh faces, mostly defectors from the Congress, who have been fielding on six of the 13 seats.
Can the BJP make a dent?
The BJP is looking to expand beyond its traditional base in urban pockets by contesting all 13 Lok Sabha seats for the first time since 1996 after its alliance with SAD ended three years ago over the now-scrapped farm laws that triggered protracted protests. The party, which won two of the three seats it contested in 2019, is counting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Ram temple issue. In 2014 and 2019, the Modi factor did not translate into anything significant for the SAD-BJP alliance. As it faces a backlash from farm unions in rural Punjab, the BJP is banking on counter-polarisation in urban areas. It remains to be seen whether the party makes inroads in rural Punjab or remains a Brahmin-Bania party.
Can AAP sustain gains made in the assembly polls?
AAP appears to be in the pole position having swept to power in 2022 with a landslide win of 92 seats in the 117-member assembly. It is facing a stiff challenge from Congress on at least 10 of 13 seats. AAP is counting on populist measures such as 300 units of free power for households, chief minister Bhagwant Mann’s clean image, and his folksy campaign, which resonates with the electorate.
AAP’s best Lok Sabha poll showing in Punjab was in its debut election in 2014 when it won four seats with 24.40% votes. AAP may fall short of the 42% vote share it got in the assembly polls but looks on course to be a major gainer.
Can the Akalis and Congress make a comeback?
The parliamentary elections present an opportunity to both the Congress and Akalis after the 2022 assembly election debacle. But Congress’s prospects look brighter. The Congress, which won eight Lok Sabha seats with a 40.12% vote share in 2019, floundered in the state polls, getting just 18 of 117 seats with 23% votes. Congress faced defections in the run-up to the parliamentary polls. But it is pinning hopes on anti-incumbency against the AAP government, former party chief Rahul Gandhi’s anti-BJP rhetoric, and bigwigs such as Charanjit Channi, Raja Warring, and Sukhjinder Randhawa, Sukhpal Khaira, who are in the fray.
It is a fight for survival for Akalis after their vote share plummeted to 18.38% in 2022 due to a weakening support base among the Sikhs and peasantry. The party has returned to its core religious agenda to redeem itself among the Sikhs while also trying to placate the farmers. The Congress looks resurgent while Akalis’ rough patch may continue.
Will the Khalistani sentiment resurface, especially with the candidature of Amritpal Singh?
There are no signs of a resurgence of pro-Khalistan sentiment after radical Sikh leader Amritpal Singh, who is lodged in Assam’s Dibrugarh jail under the National Security Act, announced his candidature from Khadoor Sahib as an independent. Singh’s parents and supporters are managing his campaign, which has not been centered on the separatist ideology that he swore by before his arrest last year. The campaign has portrayed him as an anti-drug campaigner and a Sikh preacher. It is seeking votes for him for his release from internment. Far from reviving the pro-Khalistani voices, Singh’s candidature may moderate his image. Sangrur member of Parliament Simranjit Singh Mann, a long-time Khalistani sympathiser who heads an Akali faction, is the only one to have lent support to Amritpal Singh.
