Haryana elections 2024: What are exit polls and how are they conducted?

The exit poll results for the Haryana as well as the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections will be released today. The results of the elections of the two states will be officially declared on October 8.

In Haryana, a total of 1,031 candidates are contesting in all 90 assembly constituencies, and 20,632 polling booths have been set up for voting in a single phase election.

Meanwhile, the three phases of the Jammu and Kashmir elections had 3.9 million people voting across 5,060 polling stations, in their first assembly election in 10 years, making exit polls significant in gaining understanding the similarities and changes in voter behaviour.

Also Read: Haryana assembly election 2024 live updates: Dharmendra Pradhan confident of BJP's third term in Haryana

As soon as voting for the Haryana assembly elections ends at 6 pm today, various polling sites such as Today Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, Times Now, and Poll of Polls will begin their predictions.

What are exit polls?

An exit poll is a survey conducted after interviewing voters to gauge the general response to a particular candidate or political party in a constituency.

While election exit polls are not always accurate, they provide an idea of where voters may swing and what one can expect from the election.

The reliability of exit polls depends on the type of sampling methods, margins of error and voter honesty and openness to participate as well. Exit polls can often help us identify the voters' behaviour.

Also Read: How accurate have exit polls been for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir?

Exit polls are also more representative of the general mood of voters as they are conducted on the day of the voting, unlike opinion polls which are conducted before voting starts and are far more subjective.

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.

How are they conducted?

Exit polls are typically conducted on polling day itself after people have voted.

Agencies often create questionnaires that ask people about their voting preferences and also factor in demographic details like age, gender, religion and others which could influence the way they vote. These questionnaires are often close-ended to make sure that data can be tracked exactly.

Then in order to make the sample as representative as possible, polling stations across different regions are chosen so that voices from all areas are heard as much as possible. Different organisations employ different methods of sampling - randomised or strategic sampling, to get the best picture of what the election results could be.

This data is then organised and analysed to reveal trends and patterns that favour certain candidates or parties in constituencies, or show us how one particular demographic may vote.

While exit polls may be conducted by private agencies, they are regulated by the ECI. According to ECI rules, exit polls can be telecast by agencies and other websites only after the final phase of polling, to maintain fairness and not influence people.

Any violation of this rule is punishable with imprisonment up to two years and a fine.