How accurate have exit polls been for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir?

The assembly election results for both Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana will be declared on October 8, but people are keenly awaiting the exit polls, which will be released after polling concludes in Haryana.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third term in the state, while the Congress aims to regain control after ten years.

In the past, exit polls for both states have shown mixed accuracy, with some effectively predicting seat distribution while others have varied widely from the actual results.

In 2014, voting took place on October 15, with results announced four days later. The state achieved a record voter turnout of 76.54 percent, and the BJP emerged victorious with 47 seats.

Majority of the pollsters had predicted a clear win for the saffron party in the northern state known for agriculture, sports and its historical sites.

That year, India TV – CVoter, ABP News – Nielsen, Times Now, and News 24 – Chanakya projected seat ranges of 37 to 52 for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

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Five years later, in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the single largest party in Haryana, winning 40 seats—a decline of seven seats from its previous performance.

However, exit polls showed that the BJP could secure between 51 to 78 seats in the state, surpassing the majority mark of 46 seats. The party formed a government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party and seven independent MLAs.

As a result, BJP's Manohar Lal Khattar and JJP president Dushyant Chautala were sworn in as chief minister and deputy chief minister, respectively, in the BJP-JJP alliance government.

ABP News-CVoter projected 78 seats, while Patriotic Voter forecasted 51 seats. NewsX - Pollstrat estimated 76 seats, and Republic - Jan Ki Baat ranged their prediction between 58 and 70 seats.

J&K assembly election: When and where to check exit poll results on October 5

Polls in Jammu and Kashmir were held after a decade in three phases from September 18 to October 1 and the Union Territory registered a voting percentage of 63.45 percent, higher than the turnout recorded in the recently held Lok Sabha elections.

In 2014, elections in the former state of Jammu and Kashmir were conducted in five phases from November 25 to December 20. Voters elected 87 members to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, which was set to complete its six-year term on January 19, 2020. However, the PDP-BJP government fell before this date, resulting in President's rule in the region.

Pollsters such as the C-Voter Exit Poll had estimated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win 27-33 seats, the Indian National Congress (Congress) 4-10 seats, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference 8-14 seats, the Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 32-38 seats, and others 2-8 seats.

Ultimately, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25 seats, the National Conference with 15 seats, and the Congress securing 12 seats.

In 2008, elections took place over seven days in November and December. The previous government, a coalition between the Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Indian National Congress (INC), collapsed after the PDP withdrew its support. Following the elections, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) formed a coalition with the Congress, leading to Omar Abdullah becoming the state's youngest chief minister at the age of 38.

That year, exit polls indicated that the National Conference was projected to win the majority of seats in the Valley, while the Congress was expected to secure the majority in the Jammu region.