A larger irony lies in the Republic of Marshall Islands leading the way for small island developing states (SIDS) by setting a target to reduce emissions by at least 58% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2035. This tiny country of barely 42,000 people accounts for 0% emissions.

Also Read: US withdrawal from Paris deal threatens global climate solidarity: Experts

According to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) 2024 Emissions Gap Report, failure to increase ambition in the updated NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century.

“It’s shocking that only 13 out of 195 countries have updated their NDCs, with the majority of rich nations not submitting on deadline, exposing the alarming lack of political will,” said Tasneem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International said in a press statement.

The procedure

Under the climate accord, each country is supposed to provide a steeper headline figure for cutting heat-trapping emissions by 2035, and a detailed blueprint for how to achieve this.

Global emissions have been rising but need to almost halve by the end of the decade to limit global warming to levels agreed under the Paris deal.

These targets are “supposed to be progressively more ambitious”, climate policy expert Jennifer Bansard explained in an email interview with HT.

Also Read: Trump withdraws US from Paris climate agreement, again

“In five-year intervals… These NDCs are policy documents that outline the main objectives of the countries’ climate policy and they are submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat,” she said.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell has called this latest round of national pledges “the most important policy documents governments will produce this century”.

Yet, earlier this month, he said that submissions would be needed by September so they could be properly assessed before the UN COP30 climate conference in November.

“Hearing Simon Stiell highlight the September cut-off date was not much of a surprise. What he is referring to is the cut-off time for NDCs to be considered in the Secretariat’s NDC Synthesis Report, which will provide an overview of the state of play. From my perspective it is indeed much more relevant to see who will have submitted their NDCs by then and therefore in time to inform discussions at COP30, than who missed the February deadline,” Bansard said.

Taking stock

Correa do Lago, the Brazilian foreign ministry’s secretary for the environment, said it did not matter if countries took their time to announce their new targets, but they needed to be “as ambitious as possible.”

Brazil will host the COP30 meeting in the Amazonian city of Belem -- the first time the conference will be held in a region considered so crucial to the global climate.

Also Read: Cause and Effect | Climate commitments continue to miss key targets of the Paris Agreement: NDC synthesis report

This year’s climate conference will come after US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the Paris accord for a second time and doubled down on the use of fossil fuels, even though the country had updated its NDCs in 2024.

The UK announced its target to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.

Analysts say China, the world’s biggest polluter and also its largest investor in renewable energy, is also expected to unveil its much-anticipated climate plan in the second half of the year.

The United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, New Zealand, Andorra, Switzerland and Uruguay rounded out the list of countries that made last week’s cut-off. Since then, a few more countries including Japan have updated their targets.

No legal penalties

There is no penalty for submitting late targets, formally titled nationally determined contributions (NDCs). They are not legally binding but act as an accountability measure to ensure governments are taking the threat of climate change seriously.

“It is not so much the relatively arbitrarily February date that counts, but more that NDCs are submitted this year to keep with the 5-year cycle and maintain synchronicity among countries,” Bansard argued, saying that more than the timing of submitting NDCs, it is the content and implementation that matter.

She also suggested that the socio-political realities at the national level must be considered.

“It may be that it takes longer to reach agreement at the national level because there is the hope to reach agreement on more ambitious objectives. A possibly longer, because more participatory process for defining the NDC may also prove beneficial when it comes to implementation, as it may mean there is more buy-in from the actors that participated in the process,” she said.

“These submission deadlines are artificial. What counts for people and the planet is change on the ground.”

Global instability

Most G20 economies were missing in action with the United States, Britain and Brazil -- which is hosting this year’s UN climate summit -- the only exceptions.

The US pledge is largely symbolic, made before President Donald Trump ordered Washington out of the Paris deal.

Brazil will host the COP30 meeting in the Amazonian city of Belem -- the first time the conference will be held in a region considered so crucial to the global climate.

This year’s climate conference will come after US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the Paris accord for a second time and doubled down on the use of fossil fuels.