2024 yearender: Rifts split wide open — old conflicts take centre stage

During the election campaign, Donald Trump claimed that if he was in power, neither would Russia have attacked Ukraine nor would Hamas have attacked Israel. He then declared that he would bring the war in Ukraine to an end, even before he took office on January 20. And while hedging on the timing of the end of the war in West Asia, he pledged to supporters of Israel that he stood firmly with Benjamin Netanyahu, told Arab-Americans that only he understood them, and sent out a message to Iran that his hardline policy would be back.

After his victory, Trump, who has received more briefings, including directly from Joe Biden when they met, and from European leaders in Paris and Florida, has reframed his messaging.

On West Asia, he has sent a clear message to Hamas to release all the hostages by January 20 or warned there will be “all hell to pay”. He hasn’t publicly called on Israel to end its offensive, though some reports indicate that he does want the war wrapped up around the time he takes office to be able to take credit. On Ukraine, from suggesting that he could end the war with just a phone call, Trump has woken up to the enormous human tragedy and acknowledged the strategic complexity in getting both sides to agree, claiming it is a more difficult situation than West Asia, while underlining the need for a deal urgently. And while reiterating his call to Europe to step up its security commitments to Nato, he hasn’t indicated that he will leave the continent in the lurch to handle Ukraine all on its own without some kind of deal with Moscow.

To be sure, Trump isn’t the only new variable in determining how the two wars evolve in 2025. There has been a change on the ground, especially in the final few months of 2024 -- a change that will play an equally important role in shaping the motivations and calculations of actors.

In West Asia, many realities are simultaneously true. The October 7 terror attacks against Israel were terrible and deserved the strongest condemnation. But Israel has now inflicted the greatest human tragedy in modern times, killing thousands and displacing millions of Palestinians, including children; disregarding international law and targeting a population systematically on a scale that has prompted charges of genocide and invited arrest warrants from international courts against Netanyahu. It is also true that Israel, this year, has also scored major military and strategic successes, killing Hamas’s leadership and degrading Hamas’s military strength, weakening Hezbollah dramatically before striking a ceasefire deal to its north, and engaging in two direct clashes with Iran and conducting a high profile assassination in Tehran, all of which has exposed Iran’s deficits. The fall of the regime in Syria, largely thanks to Turkey-backed militants, is also a major strategic setback to Iran, and in that sense, will work as an advantage to Israel even though the long term implications of the shift in Damascus are more uncertain.

Any rational calculus dictates that Israel can claim victory and end this. But this is where Netanyahu’s political survival comes in, as does the aspiration of both his far-Right partners and of key Trump supporters to see even the end of even the rhetorical commitment to the two-State solution, control over Gaza, and an Israeli takeover of West Bank. But if Trump does give the green signal for any such further aggression, it may end his hopes for the widening of the Abraham Accords and Israel-Saudi normalisation. All of these contradictory impulses made an appearance in 2024 and will play out in the year ahead. Keep an eye out for Iran too which is wounded but not out.

In Europe, Trump speaks for many when he emphasises the urgency of a deal. This war has been a lose-lose for everyone. Moscow made some territorial gains and has new friends, and it gained a psychological upper hand in 2024, but it would be hard to argue that Russia today is economically, technologically or strategically more powerful than it was before 2022. Ukraine is devastated and it will take generations to rebuild the country. Hundreds of thousands on both sides have died. Europeans and Americans paying the bill to save Ukraine are tired. No side can win decisively -- the West, even Trump probably, won’t allow a takeover of Kyiv and Ukraine can’t get back all it has lost since 2014. As John Kerry said at the 2024 Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, the moment is ripe to end the war.

But just as in West Asia, the devil lies in the detail, which in turn goes back to the issue of political intent. Think of all that has been in play in recent months and will assume more intensity when it comes to any resolution. How static or dynamic is the battleground in terms of military balance of power? Can and will the US persuade Ukraine to give up a part or all of the territory that is under Russian control? Can Russia live with an Ukraine that is in Nato in return for Moscow keeping its territorial advantages? If not, what are the security guarantees for Ukraine that Moscow won’t change its mind even if Kyiv makes concessions? How unified is Europe, given the differences on geographical and ideological lines? What are the implications of the European theatre now seeing active the involvement of Indo-Pacific players, with China serving as the engine behind Russia, North Korean troops on the ground fighting for Russia, Japan and South Korea arming Ukraine, and India seeking to position itself as a potential messenger or peacemaker? Does it suit China to end the war or keep it going, distracting the West from Indo-Pacific and enhancing Russia’s dependence on Beijing? What are the levers Donald Trump has on Vladimir Putin and vice versa in what is definitely an opaque relationship?

It may eventually just boil down to the political will of Trump, a couple of European leaders, Volodymr Zelensky, Putin and Xi Jinping and the balance of power between them, but the number of variables in play does make any peace pact hard to achieve.

In 2024, the complexion and contours of the war in Ukraine and West Asia changed. Managing these complexities will determine whether there is peace or not in both threatens in 2025.