Congress banking on guarantees, alliance, unity to return to power in Assam

The Congress managed to win just 26 out of 126 constituencies with a 30.9% vote share in Assam in 2016 even as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 29.5% of votes got 60 seats and came to power in the state for the first time. BJP’s allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) got nearly 12% votes, won 14 and 12 seats, taking the ruling alliance’s tally to 86.

The Congress’s strength in the assembly has since 2016 been reduced to 19. Former chief minister Tarun Gogoi’s death in November due to post-Covid-19 complications was another major setback to the party along with the defection of two of its legislators to join the BJP ahead of the 2021 elections.

The Congress, which ruled the state for 15 years before losing power in 2016, is hoping for a comeback on the back of a multi-party alliance, electoral guarantees, and unity within the party ranks. It tied up in January with perfume baron and Lok Sabha member Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation and Anchalik Gana Morcha.

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AIUDF holds considerable sway over Bengali-speaking Muslims, who can influence outcomes of nearly 30 seats in central, lower Assam, and three districts of the Barak Valley. The tie-up was sealed despite apprehensions within the Congress that it could impact the party’s prospects in the Upper Assam belt, which has around 45 seats.

The alliance was boosted when the BPF, which is influential in the four districts of Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), joined it after quitting the BJP-led coalition. The Congress has also been wooing two new regional parties, Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal, which are contesting the polls together.

An AGP office bearer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the AIUDF got 13 seats in 2016 and BPF 12 and 13% and 4% vote share. “If that is added to the Congress’s figure, the total vote share of the three parties was 57%. If that gets repeated this time, it could make it difficult for us to return to power.”

The BJP has been targeting the Congress-AIUDF alliance calling it unholy that “threatens” the culture, religion, language of the indigenous Assamese. Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has been among the BJP leaders who have warned against illegal immigrants and claimed Assam would “turn into Bangladesh” if Ajmal’s AIUDF and Congress come to power.

Congress leaders in Assam have tried to bury their differences at least in the public and joined hands to oust BJP. State Congress chief Ripun Bora, legislature party leader Debabrata Saikia, Lok Sabha members Pradyut Bordoloi and Gaurav Gogoi, All India Mahila Congress president Sushmita Dev and former minister Rakibul Hussain are frequently seen together at party events to convey the message of unity.

The Congress has also roped in Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel and the party’s Assam in-charge, Jitendra Singh. Singh has stayed put in the state and formulated the party poll strategy in consultations with leaders in Assam and Delhi. Baghel has deputed his aides Vinod Verma, Rajesh Tiwari, and Ruchir Garg from Chhattisgarh to Assam.

Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra have also interacted with workers and voters to boost Congress’s chances in the state. Gandhi has promised the Congress will not implement the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Assam if the party comes to power.

The CAA was passed in 2019 to fast-track the citizenship process for non-Muslims from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. It has triggered fears of a fresh influx of immigrants from Bangladesh.

Priyanka Gandhi pledged 500,000 jobs, ₹2,000 per month allowance to housewives, a minimum daily wage of ₹365 to tea garden workers and 200 units of free electricity every month. The Congress followed this up with a promise of 50% reservation in government jobs for women if it comes to power.

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Congress leaders say that instead of making promises, the party is guaranteeing that they will be kept.

Gaurav Gogoi, the chief of Congress’s manifesto committee, said the party was promising only 500,000 government jobs as opposed to the BJP’s unfulfilled promise of employment generation for 2.5 million. “We have studied the state budget and consulted economists and have come to the conclusion that it is possible to provide 500,000 jobs in five years. Since this is a guarantee and not an empty election promise, we wanted to be honest and come up with a figure that is actually possible.”

The Congress has given tickets to all but one of its lawmakers for the first and second phase of polling on March 27 and April 1. Sum Ronghang, a BJP lawmaker and minister, quit the party and joined Congress after being denied a ticket.

Congress has announced the names of 66 candidates for the first two phases of polls. It is yet to finalise the seat-sharing arrangement with AIUDF and BPF for the third phase on April 6.

AIUDF lawmaker Aminul Islam said their alliance will be voted to power easily. “Prior to BPF joining us, we were expecting around 60-62 seats, but now...we will win around 70 of the total 126 seats. AIUDF alone will win around 18-20 seats.”

BJP spokesperson Rupam Goswami said the Congress has shown its true colours by joining hands with AIUDF, which was formed to safeguard the interests of suspected foreigners. “It is an unholy nexus and will spell doom for the state’s indigenous people. Voters in Assam are aware and alert, and they would not allow that to happen. Based on our government’s work...the BJP will return to power.”