In Assam, a political battle over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act

As the electoral competition in Assam for the state assembly polls intensifies, the focus has shifted back to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, and how the controversial legislation — which enables expedited citizenship to religious minorities from Muslim-majority Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan who entered India on or before December 31, 2014 — will affect voting patterns.

Violent protests in Assam in December 2019 against CAA claimed five lives in police firing and opposition to the legislation led to birth of two regional parties. And while ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition downplays CAA, the opposition alliance, led by the Congress, has made it a prime area or focus in its campaign.

Roots of the immigrant debate

Indigenous communities in Assam have been apprehensive of outsiders, especially those from erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), for over a century. It led to an agitation between 1979 and 1985, popularly called the Assam movement, which claimed over 800 lives in police action and ended with signing of an accord that promised sealing of borders with Bangladesh and detection and deportation of illegal immigrants who entered after March 24, 1971.

Successive governments failed to implement the accord and the issue continued to simmer. Five years ago, when thr BJP promised to deport all illegal Bangladeshis, it galvanised votes and the party was able to come to power for the first time along with alliance partners, Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland Peoples Front. There was also, separately, a judiciary-driven process to update the National Register of Citizens in the state — which was both politically controversial and had humanitarian implications.

In this backdrop, when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) introduced and passed CAA in Parliament in December 2019, protests flared up across most parts of Assam. There were protests against the legislation in other parts of India as well, but while those protests were against exclusion of Muslims from its purview, in Assam, the opposition was against allowing non-Muslim illegal immigrants to become citizens.

Large sections of the political class and civil society in Assam continue to believe that CAA was against the Assam Accord of 1985 that assured an end to entry of illegal immigrants, irrespective of their religious affiliations. Several groups and indigenous associations felt if CAA is implemented, it could lead to an influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and threaten language, culture and land holdings of local populations.

The opposition build-up

Though the protests against CAA faded, they resulted in formation of two regional parties opposed to the legislation. While All Assam Students Union (AASU) and Assam Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), two prominent student bodies that spearheaded the protests formed the Assam Jatiya Parishad, another outfit Raijor Dal was launched by Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS), a farmers’ rights body that also played a key role in the anti-CAA stir.

Claiming to be representatives of indigenous aspirations, these two parties, who are opposed to the implementation of CAA in Assam, have joined hands to form the third alternative for voters while trying to remain equidistant from the BJP-led alliance and the opposition alliance headed by Congress.

“Once we come to power, our government will take a decision on non-implementation of CAA in Assam, pass a resolution in assembly on it and intensify protests to get the legislation scrapped in parliament,” Raijor Dal working president said on Tuesday after releasing the party’s vision document.

Also Read | Modi, Shah, Yogi and Irani on BJP’s list of star campaigners for Assam polls

While AJP has released a list of candidates for 68 seats till now, Raijor Dal has announced names of candidates for 20 seats. President of AJP Lurinjyoti Gogoi will contest from Duliajan and Naharkatiya and Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi, who is under arrest since December 2019 for his role in the anti-CAA protests, will be contesting from the Sivasagar and Mariani seats. The alliance has a tie-up with Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) for the seats in two hills districts of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao.

The two new regional outfits are not alone in their opposition to CAA. The grand alliance of Congress and six other parties — All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF), CPI, CPI-M, CPI-ML and newly formed Anchalik Gana Morcha (AGM) — are also focusing on the legislation and taking it to voters as an important poll issue.

The Congress’s stance on CAA was displayed loud and clear during party leader Rahul Gandhi’s first poll rally in the state last month at Sivasagar when all senior leaders wore “gamosas” (traditional towels) around their necks with a crossed CAA on it. Gandhi stated that CAA was BJP’s attempt at dividing the people of Assam and Congress won’t allow its implementation in Assam if the party comes to power.

The anti-CAA stance is also part of Congress’s five guarantees for voters in this election. It has also announced plans to build a memorial on the anti-CAA protests after coming to power. “After we win the election, we will pass a law in the assembly that won’t allow the CAA to be implemented in Assam. We have already asked lawyers to start drafting such a law,” Congress Lok Sabha MP from Nagaon Pradyut Bordoloi said.

The BJP’s assessment

Contrary to what the two regional outfits and the Congress-led grand alliance may assume, the BJP and its allies are at least outwardly confident that CAA is a non-issue in this election and the ruling coalition’s development and welfare schemes in the past five years will be enough to ensure another term in office.

“Protests against CAA have lost relevance post the Covid-19 pandemic. Voters are not bothered about it now. They are more concerned about development. The Congress and other parties have failed to judge the sentiment of the public,” senior minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said recently.

Also Read | Over 173 candidates file nomination for first phase of assembly polls in Assam

Instead of mentioning CAA in their poll rallies, the BJP is banking on what it sees an undercurrent of polarisation, with Sarma stressing that there is a threat to Assamese people and their religion and culture from Muslims, particularly those who came from Bangladesh. He and his party colleagues have also highlighted how Congress has acted against the interest of people of Assam by joining hands with “communal” Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF.

“Our stand on CAA has been very clear and implementing it is part of BJP’s ideology. Despite that, people of Assam have supported us in 2016 assembly polls and the 2019 general election. It won’t affect us this time as well. In fact, people are more worried about the unholy nexus between Congress and AIUDF and will show them the door again,” BJP spokesperson Rupam Goswami said.

Experts believe that while the CAA issue is an emotive one, its electoral implications are not clear.

“CAA should and could have been an important poll issue in Assam. But the spontaneous protests against the legislation erupted like a volcano in December 2019 and petered out. Even the two political parties, Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal, which were formed as an outcome of the protests failed to carry forward or sustain the issue,” said Alaka Sarmah, professor of political science at Gauhati University.

She added that while the the legislation may be a factor for a section of voters in urban areas, it won’t affect how people vote in the rural areas, while the government’s welfare schemes targeting all segments of the population could play a bigger role in the election