Spike again: Delhi sees 4,086 new cases in a day

After a gap of a little over a month, new cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in Delhi on Thursday again breached the 4,000-mark, capping what appears to be a clear resurgence of cases in the Capital right before the festive season.

A total of 4,086 new Covid-19 cases were reported on Friday, taking the total number of confirmed infections in the city to 348,404, according to Friday’s health bulletin by the Delhi government.

The seven-day average of daily cases, also known as the case trajectory, now has been rising for 11 straight days – it has risen from 2,661 on October 12 to 3,421 on Friday.

With the cases rising, the positivity rate – the proportion of tests that are positive for Covid-19 – also continued its rise with 6.98% of the 58,568 samples tested in the past 24 hours coming back positive. The seven-day average positivity rate is now at 6.37% — it was 5.73% the week before, and 5.4% the week before that.

While the first wave cases in Delhi peaked around the end of June, new infections had again started rising in the start of September. However from the third week of September, these numbers had started declining again, but now have been rising steadily in the last 10 days along with an increase in the number of the more accurate RT-PCR tests.

More than 16,000 RT-PCR tests were done in the city for the third consecutive day.

“The sensitivity of the rapid antigen test is about 60% to 65% at best; if we use more RT-PCR tests, of course, we will detect more cases. But I think the current increase in the cases is not just because of the RT-PCR tests; there might be some increase happening on the ground. It is the festive season, people are stepping out, going shopping and all this leads to increase in the transmission of the infection and higher number of cases,” said Dr Shobha Broor, former head of the department of microbiology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).

Experts said this resurgence of cases at the outset of the festive season is a cause for concern as the numbers are likely to increase further with more and more people stepping to celebrate and shop.

“When it comes to Covid-19, it has been seen that transmission increases with proximity. And, with festive season people are likely to meet their friends and families, eat together, and not strictly follow the measures such as wearing masks and maintaining social distance, which will lead to a further increase in the number of cases in the coming weeks,” said Dr GC Khilnani, former head of the department of pulmonology at AIIMS.

And, the increase in the levels of pollution will add to the woes, they said.

“This is a double whammy. The air quality index is already hovering over 300. This will compound the impact on the lungs and respiratory tract of the people, leading to more symptomatic cases and hospitalisations in the coming months. It is of utmost importance that people follow the precautions like wearing masks, washing hands, and maintaining social distancing now more than ever. This is especially true for people who already have underlying conditions like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that will worsen with the high levels of pollution,” said Sandeep Nayyar, head of the department of respiratory medicine, allergy and sleep disorders, BL Kapur Super Speciality Hospital.