Will Bharatiya Janata Party continue to dominate reserved seat matrix in Uttar Pradesh?

With the Lok Sabha poll process having been set in motion, the BJP is out to retain 15 of the 17 reserved seats it had won in the 2019 parliamentary election (one of these 15 seats went to its ally Apna Dal- S) to continue to dominate the caste matrix in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 by once again denting the Dalit votebank of its poll rivals.

These 17 seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes in Uttar Pradesh are: Agra, Bahraich, Bansgaon, Barabanki, Bulandshahr, Etawah, Hardoi, Hathras, Jalaun, Kaushambi, Lalganj, Machhlishahr, Misrikh, Mohanlalganj, Nagina, Robertsganj and Shahjahanpur. Barring Lalganj and Nagina (both won by the Bahujan Samaj Party), the remaining seats went into the BJP kitty five years ago.

This time, the ruling party is out to hold on to its winning caste matrix – broadly non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes -- that worked wonders for it in the last four polls in Uttar Pradesh.

In fact, in these four successive poll victories in Uttar Pradesh—2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017, 2022 assembly polls- the BJP managed the most diverse representation minus Muslims.

In these wins in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had activated its Dalit leaders across the state who held small meetings in Dalit- dominated areas without any pomp and show.

They tried to deliver the message among Dalits that their interest was safe only with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party was their biggest “enemy”.

To prove their point, they highlighted the Modi government’s pro-poor centric policies.

Being fully aware of the significance of Dalit votes, the BJP on March 8 made a headstart by organising “Anulsoochit Jaati Mahasammelan” at Kothi Meena Bazar ground in Agra, the western Uttar Pradesh district which is considered the Dalit capital of Uttar Pradesh.

“When Congress was in power, they never viewed the Dalits with humanity and compassion,” BJP national president JP Nadda had said, addressing the gathering.

Pitted against the BJP is the INDIA bloc, largely the SP-Congress alliance, which is keen to stop BJP juggernaut. But this will be an uphill task for the Opposition considering that the SP-BSP experiment in 2019 failed to do it despite the caste arithmetic having been in its favour back then.

On the other hand, the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) hold on the Dalits has weakened.

The Scheduled Caste or Dalit vote, which is around 21% of the electorate in U.P, is broadly divided into Jatavs (11.7%), Pasis (3.3%), Valmiks (3.15 %), Gonds, Dhanuks, Khatiks (1.2%) and others (1.6%).

The SP has intensified its efforts to bring Dalits into its fold through the PDA (Pichhada, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula.

For four-five months, the Samajwadi Party conducted Dalit sammelans across the state on a regular basis.

Led by SP leader Mithai Lal Bharti, the party tried to allay all fears of Dalits about the Samajwadi Party.

“This election will be contested on the social justice plank. Of late, the Samajwadi Party has been able to address all issues of Dalits and bring them in its fold. A large section of Dalits will vote for the PDA in this election,” said Prof Ramesh Dixit, former head of the political science department, Lucknow University.

Another political observer said a large section of Dalits view the past SP regimes as hostile to them and they will not piggyback on the Samajwadi Party.

For the BSP, which once considered the torch-bearer of Dalits, the scenario is grim in Uttar Pradesh.

Its vote share in Uttar Pradesh came down to 12.88% in the 2022 assembly polls from 19.3% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP was the bigger beneficiary of the alliance with the SP, bagging 10 seats as compared to the SP’s tally of five seats.

Soon after the 2019 polls, the BSP’s alliance with the Samajwadi Party fell apart. The BSP is going solo in this election.

In Uttar Pradesh, all parties have made inroads among Dalits at the expense of the BSP. Among these parties, the BJP is the main beneficiary, says Prashant Trivedi, associate prof at the Giri Institute of Development Studies.

All candidates are Dalits on reserved seats, so here the non-Dalit voters are the deciding factor, he explains.