85% paddy area in Punjab yet to be cleared of stubble; late spike likely

NEW DELHI: Only 15.26% or 0.46 million hectares of the 3.028 million hectares of land on which paddy has been cultivated this year in Punjab was cleared till October 14, according to a satellite analysis by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), pointing to a coming spike in farm fires in the region, at the cost of Delhi’s air.

The analysis shows that paddy on 0.36 million hectares has been harvested and the stubble managed (or cleared), and that farm stubble was burnt on only 92,624 hectares. Experts say delayed rains, that, in turn, delayed sowing, may mean later-than-normal harvests this year.

The latest analysis, of October 14, “shows that only 15% of the land under paddy cultivation has been cleared out,” said V.K. Sehgal, Professor & Principal Scientist at IARI, the head of Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modelling from Space (CREAMS), which collates data from each state in terms of the actual farm fires before sharing it with the Union Environment Ministry and the Commission for Air Quality Management.

Sehgal admits that there is a “slight delay” in harvests. Usually, by October 14, “at least 25% of the fields should have ideally been cleared out. This year we appear to be slightly behind.” But he added that most farmers, particularly in the Malwa region of Punjab, anyway harvest their crop between October 15 and November 15.

“Based on this harvesting pattern, we normally see farm fires peaking around October 26-27, and this year we may see a similar spike by the end of October. We are seeing a gradual increase in numbers over the last few days,” he said.

According to the daily farm fire data being recorded by CREAMS, Punjab has recorded a total of 2,625 farm fires between September 15 and October 19. However, 1,758 of these have been recorded in the last seven days alone.

Punjab recorded 120 fires on October 13, 82 on October 14, 169 fires on October 15, 206 on October 16, 403 on October 17, 342 fires on October 14 and this season’s highest single day count of 436 fires on October 19.

Between September 15 and October 19 last year, Punjab had recorded 2,625 fires, while in 2020, the figure was 8,509 fires for this period.

In the winter harvest season of 2021, a total of 71,304 farm fires were recorded in Punjab, while 79,293 fires were recorded in 2020.

Comparisons with past years have been made difficult by the rains -- their delayed onset delayed sowing; and unseasonal rains when the crops were ready or nearing readiness have delayed harvests.

Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) says two late spells of rain in September and early October are likely to have delayed stubble burning in Punjab, leading to a narrower window for stubble burning. She too warned that the worst is to come.

“The total radiative fire power of farm fires in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi breeched just around 2,000 Watt on October 16. This is less than half of the value recorded in 2020 and 2021 for same period, implying massive burning is in store in coming few days. Based on previous years’ observation, it can be said that situation can worsen if business as usual scenario continues.”

Krunesh Garg, member secretary, Punjab Pollution Control Board, said Punjab is making progress this year, both in terms of the fire count and the area burnt. “We have already shared data with CAQM that farm fires are reducing as compared to previous years. We have also tried to analyse the data of the total area being burnt this year and have found that till October 16, only around 0.105 million hectares of paddy has been burnt this year as compared to 0.150 million hectares at the same time till last year. This is a reduction of around 30%,” he said, admitting that while considerable area is yet to be harvested, efforts on the ground will ensure a majority of it is not burnt.