Rajinder Nagar bypoll: AAP reasserts dominance of Capital’s political scene

The Bharatiya Janata Party ‘s(BJP) defeat in the bypoll to the Rajinder Nagar assembly segment in the national Capital has shown once again that the party has not been able to find face to rival that of Aam Aadmi Party convener and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, political analysts said even as the BJP leaders said the party needs to introspect on the elections result.

The analysts pointed out that BJP was able to win all seven Lok Sabha seats in the state when it fought in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but despite being able to retain all the parliamentary seats in the Capital, the BJP is yet to defeat the AAP in a local election since 2015. In fact, the party lost bypolls to five municipal wards last year.

Reacting to the party’s loss, Delhi BJP chief Adesh Gupta said “victory and defeat are part of democracy”. “We accept the verdict of the people and the BJP will continue to be available to solve the issues of the public,” said Gupta.

A senior Delhi BJP leader, who asked not to be named, however said that back-to-back defeats should serve as a wake-up call for the party “before it is too late”. “In the past months, the party has ran several campaigns such as the jhuggi stay drive in which party leaders stayed with residents of slum cluster in their shanties, the ‘pol khol’ campaign to expose the shortcomings of the Kejriwal government and the drive against the new excise policy. However, nothing clicked with the voters. It should prompt a serious introspection to find what is lacking in the party strategy,” the leader said.

The two parties ran an aggressive campaigns ahead of the polling on Thursday. While the BJP made it an insider versus outsider fight, ‘Sthaniy Voter Chunega Sthniye Vidhyak’ (Local voter will choose a local MLA), the AAP’s canvassing was centred on ‘Kejriwal Ki Sarkar Kejrial Ka Vidhyak’ (Kejriwal’s government, Kejriwal’s MLA). Top leaders of the both the parties held several roadshows in the constituency.

The AAP’s slogan was an extension of its campaign songs in 2015 (paanch saal Kejriwal) and 2020 (Lage raho Kejriwal) but the BJP’s campaign did not have a matching local leader’s face, a factor that may have costed the party the bypoll, the analysts said.

Rahul Verma, fellow for the Centre for Policy Research, said as compared to AAP, BJP is “weaker” in Delhi. “AAP has a formidable leadership in Arvind Kejriwal, but BJP has a leadership crisis and it does not have an acceptable and recognisable face for the national capital. In Delhi, AAP has been in power for the last seven years and they have a governance record, which has been endorsed by the voters in the 2020 assembly polls. The governance records give AAP an edge over the BJP,” said Verma.

Barring the Lok Sabha polls, the AAP has completely dominated the electoral space in Delhi. The party won unprecedented majority in the assembly elections in 2015, and then repeated its performance in 2020. Then, in March 2021, it won four of the five municipal wards where bypolls were held. The fifth seat went to the Congress with the BJP drawing a blank.

The BJP candidate, Rajesh Bhatia, a former municipal councillor, billed it as a “Rajesh Bhatia versus Arvind Kejriwal election”.

“Arvind Kejriwal held four roadshows in the constituency...all AAP MLAs were asked to camp in the area. They threatened the voters of getting their services like water and power supply stopped if they vote for me. I thank the people who voted for me. I will continue working like their MLA and address the problems they bring to me,” Bhatia told HT.

AAP leaders rejected the charges and instead, indicated infighting within the BJP. “One prominent thing about Rajinder Nagar bypoll was that senior BJP leaders helped us, and we thank them humbly. You have served your country by rising above the party line, all of you deserve applause,” AAP leader Atishi tweeted in Hindi on Sunday.

AAP MLA from Greater Kailash Saurabh Bharadwaj also tweeted in Hindi about infighting in BJP. “It was once said about the Congress that it defeats itself. In the Rajinder Nagar bypoll, BJP leaders defeated the BJP,” Bharadwaj tweeted.

Leader of the opposition in Delhi assembly and BJP MLA Ramvir Singh Bidhuri rejected the charges and said that all party leaders and workers worked very hard but the AAP managed to win because it misled the voters by falsely claiming credit for works done by the Modi government. “The party workers worked with dedication. The party fielded the most suitable person as the candidate. Definitely, we were not able to convice the voters that the BJP candidate was the best MLA for them. The party will review the result to find out the reasons behind the loss,” said Bidhuri.

Party workers, many of those waiting outside the counting centre, conceded that the BJP was not even able to raise the most pertinent local issue -- poor water supply -- properly, and failed to make it resonate with the voters. They also blamed a dispirited cadre, poor campaign management and the negative impact of anti-encroachment drives by the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (which comes under the BJP-led central government) for the party’s loss.

“With one single trick, Arvind Kejriwal neutralized the negative sentiments over the water crisis. During his campaign, Kejriwal acknowledged that the area was going through a water crisis, and promised to set it right. People believed him,” said at least two BJP workers who asked not to be named.

Prof Tanvir Aeijaz, associate professor of Political Science at Ramjas College, said over the years the number of migrants staying in JJ clusters in Rajinder Nagar has grown, and the number of voters in upscale colonies has declined leading to a change in the demographics of the area. “The victory of the AAP marks its strong hold over the migrant population, and in fact the BJP’s attempt to polarise the campaign over local versus outsider issue, worked in favour of the AAP. Low voter turnout, particularly in old Rajendra Nagar and upscale pockets, which are considered largely supporters of the BJP, also helped the AAP,” he said.

Sanjay Kumar, a professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and apolitical analyst, said usually the ruling party always has an upper hand in byelections. “In 2015 assembly elections, the AAP got 67 out of 70 seats. In Delhi AAP has been in power for the over last seven years and they have done work in different sectors which has been appreciated by the people. This was evident by the results of the 2020 assembly elections in which the party won 62 out of the total 70 seats,” said Kumar.