MCD polls: How AAP wrested power from BJP

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has won 134 out of 250 wards in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD), slightly over the 126-majority mark which is lower than what it expected as the party mounted a massive campaign promising to clean Delhi, check corruption and fix everything wrong with the MCD. Ahead of polls, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal had given in writing at different places that the AAP will get 230 seats and BJP will be confined to less than 20 seats. The BJP has got 104 seats.

Even though it performed below its own expectations, AAP’s vote share has gone up from 26.23% in the 2017 MCD polls to 42.05% in the current MCD polls. It is, however, not sufficient to lift the excitement in the AAP camp because in the 2020 assembly election, AAP got a vote share of 53.57%.

So within in over two years, the AAP’s vote share has dipped while the BJP’s vote share in the 2020 assembly polls (38.51%) and the current MCD polls (39.09%) are similar. It is the first-ever election that AAP has won with a very thin margin (only 8 seats more than the majority mark). In 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, and the 2022 Punjab elections AAP got a massive majority.

An extensive positive campaign based on Kejriwal’s 10 promises like cleaning the capital; and effective handling of the allegations of scams including the absence of deputy CM Manish Sisodia’s name in the CBI charge sheet seems to be among the factors which worked in favor of AAP lifting its votes share as compared to five years back. AAP made sanitation the main focus of its campaign, mindful that sanitation services affect everyone across the capital; involved the RWAs and traders’ associations; and hard sold the goodwill it has established in the Delhi government.

It was the first election since the riots in northeast Delhi. The results from the riot-hit northeast areas show that AAP has suffered huge electoral losses in such areas. Out of the six wards falling under riot-hit areas in northeast Delhi which AAP had won in 2017 have slipped out of the AAP’s control. AAP has lost five of the six wards to the BJP and one among it to the Congress (Chauhan Bangar, Shubhash Mohalla, Nehru Vihar, Satadpur (earlier Khajuri Khas), Kardampuri and Nehru Vihar).

An AAP leader, who did not want to be identified, said: “The BJP had polarized the election and the delimitation was mischievously done by the BJP to suit its electoral interests.” CM Arvind Kejriwal also stayed away from campaigning in the riot-hit areas.

The simultaneous schedule of Gujarat and MCD polls which divided the resources and attention of the AAP leaders including CM Arvind Kejriwal and the poor performance of the AAP ministers in the wards coming under their areas (AAP lost all the wards under Satyendar Jain’s Shakur Basti assembly constituency, in Kailash Gahlot’s Najafgarh assembly AAP lost all 3 wards, and AAP lost 3 out of four wards in minister Gopal Rai’s assembly constituency) are among the factors which seem to have damaged AAP’s expectations.

Quote from AAP is awaited....

Delhi BJP spokesperson Praveen Shankar Kapoor said that the AAP leaders are blaming delimitation out of frustration. “Actually, the AAP councilors who were elected in 2017 did nothing for the people in the last five years and the people voted them out,” said Kapoor.

The victory in the civic polls is a major shot in the arm for AAP despite the BJP’s aggressive campaigning and underscores its sustained popularity among the people of Delhi. At least 15 Union ministers and six chief ministers held hundreds of public meetings ahead of the polls. Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia largely led the AAP campaign as well as canvassed in Gujarat.

The AAP’s victory in the MCD comes a day ahead of the counting of votes in Gujarat, where exit polls have predicted AAP will get enough votes to help it become a national party.

What AAP promised

Kejriwal promised to make Delhi clean and beautiful, end corruption, fix parking issues, address the problem of stray cattle, repair roads, revamp schools under the MCD, etc as part of his 10 guarantees. He also pledged to beautify MCD parks, regularise temporary workers, pay timely salaries, simplify licensing, and to create a conducive atmosphere for trade and vending zones. The AAP is expected to improve its standing if it lives up to the promises made to Delhi’s 20 million residents.

A double-edged sword

The AAP may pick its mayor and leader of the House, chairman of the standing council, and heads of the deliberative wings who will have considerable power. But the Centre exercises executive powers related to land, the police, and public order with respect to the National Capital Territory of Delhi. The AAP government has been at loggerheads with the BJP-led central government over the boundaries of the legislative and administrative powers in the national capital.

A big leap

The AAP has sought to expand its influence nationally since it returned to power in Delhi by winning 62 seats in the 70-member assembly in 2020. It became the first regional party to have governments in two states when it swept to power in Punjab this year. The AAP hopes to make significant inroads into Gujarat. It is expected to contest more polls in 2023 when elections are due in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana.

A win in MCD polls and decent performance in Gujarat will bolster AAP’s position as a serious national alternative and may also draw politicians from other parties and increase donations for the party.

AAP’s campaign for MCD polls focused on overflowing garbage and it hopes even a margination improvement in the situation will bring it rich political dividends in the run-up to the 2024 polls and assembly election a year later.

The MCD with 250 wards was unified with the merger of three municipal corporations this year. Earlier, Delhi had three mayors with separate budgets and curtailed influence due to three municipal corporations. Now the MCD will have one mayor commanding almost three times bigger budget and jurisdiction.

MCD, which is one of the largest civic bodies in the world, has an annual budget of ₹15,200 crore and around 150,000 employees. It is usually the first port of call for Delhi’s residents for registering births, deaths, marriages, trade licences, and permissions, etc.

The BJP has controlled MCD for 15 years while the AAP emerged as the second biggest party in place of the Congress in 2017. The exit polls, trends, and results, now place it in poll position as the counting of over seven million votes continues.