IMD forecasts sharp rise in chill, rain on weekend

Delhi is braced for colder days as the minimum temperature is expected to dip sharply by Friday on account of fresh snowfall in the mountains, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast. The city is also likely to see light rain over the weekend as a fresh western disturbance starts to impact the region from Saturday onwards, officials said.

On Tuesday, however, the minimum temperature was four degrees above normal at 10.5°C. This is forecast to dip to 6°C by Thursday and 5°C by Friday. The lowest minimum temperature recorded so far this season was on December 12, when it fell to 4.5°C.

IMD has also issued a yellow alert till Friday, forecasting moderate to dense fog to persist in the region, accompanied with cold northwesterly winds, which will lead to cold day conditions in isolated pockets. Meanwhile, the maximum temperature stood at 16.2°C, which was three degrees below normal. The maximum is likely to hover around 16°C till Thursday before marginally rising to 18°C by Friday.

IMD classifies it as a “cold day” when the maximum is 4.5°C or more below normal, with the minimum also being below 10°C. No weather station in the city met this criteria on Tuesday.

“There are chances isolated stations may record cold day conditions as the maximum will hover between 14-16°C in parts of the city and the minimum too will be below 10°C,” said an IMD official.

Delhi witnessed moderate to dense fog on Tuesday, with the lowest visibility of 150 metres at Palam at around 3:30am, IMD said. Visibility between 500 and 1,000 metres is classified as “shallow” fog, between 200 and 500 metres as “moderate” and below 200 metres is “dense” fog.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet said the city is witnessing consistent cold northwesterly winds which provide a chilling effect even during the day. “Even with sunshine, these winds will increase the chill factor and keep the maximum low. The minimum will also fall sharply again,” he added, stating a rise in temperature is once again likely from Saturday onwards as a fresh western disturbance approaches.

“Winds will slow down once again over the weekend, but cloudiness and light rains will return to the plains, including Delhi-NCR. The minimum is expected to rise during this period, but the maximum should remain low,” he said.

The lowest maximum recorded so far this season was 14.6°C on December 27.

Historical data shows the minimum in January can dip between 1-3°C. In January last year, the lowest minimum was 3.3°C (January 15). In 2023, it was 1.4°C on January 16. The lowest minimum in the last decade was 1.1°C on January 1, 2021.

IMD in its forecast for the months of January, February and March, issued on January 1, had said that north India is most likely to record below normal rainfall (<86% of LPA). However, in January, north India is likely to see above normal rainfall (>122 % of LPA), it had said.

Temperature forecast for January, meanwhile, shows that the monthly minimum temperature is expected to be above normal in many parts of the country except some parts in east, northwest and west central India. The monthly maximum in January is also likely to be above normal in most parts of the country, except some pockets in northwest, Central and adjoining east India, it had said.