Farm fires may pick up soon, experts say

After a slow start to the stubble burning season, largely due to a late withdrawal of the south-west monsoon and on and off showers till the end of October, farm fires events in states neighbouring Delhi are picking up only post-Diwali and with the next crop season fast approaching, environmentalists and weather experts have warned that the fire count could rise fast in the coming days.

Experts also cautioned that a smaller window will not necessarily mean fewer fires; in fact, this year’s cumulative fire count could match or even surpass the figures of the past years, an estimation that does not bode well for Delhi, where air quality is already oscillating between severe and very poor since Diwali (November 4).

An analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa)’s NRT VIIRS satellite data by think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) shows the fire count from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh has touched 64,299 between October 1 and November 10 — the third highest cumulative count after those recorded in 2020 and 2016.

In 2020, 71,976 fires were recorded during the same period, while 93,076 fires were recorded during the same period in 2016. Experts say if the present trend continues, this year’s tally could match or even surpass the count of last year.

CEEW analysis also showed while Punjab has so far recorded 54,834 fires between October 1 and November 10 — the third highest count after those recorded in 2020 (64,958) and 2016 (77,108) — Haryana, where farm fires have shown a declining trend over the past few years, has shown a spike in fires this year.

So far, Haryana has recorded 7,197 farm fires, a spike of nearly 40% from last year’s count of 4,371 fires during the same period. In 2019, Haryana recorded 5,254 fires till November 10, while the figure was 6,252 in 2018. Haryana’s numbers were higher only in 2017 and 2016, when it recorded 8,310 and 10,070 fires, respectively.

“Between September 1 and November 10, 55,076 and 7,237 farm fires were spotted in Punjab and Haryana, respectively. While the fires recorded so far are fewer when compared to the corresponding period last year, they were higher than those during the same period in 2018 and 2019. We have observed a considerable rise in the number of farm fires in November this year,” said LS Kurinji, programme associate, CEEW.

She said while the number of farm fires collectively in Punjab and Haryana were only 20,723 till October 31, this figure has more than tripled, to 62,308 in the last 10 days, indicative of farmers stepping up the count as the crop season is fast approaching.

“The slight shift observed in the farm fires trend this year can be attributed to the delayed harvest on account of a delayed monsoon withdrawal. The daily fire count has increased to a range of 3,000-6,000 fires over the past one week and with winds blowing predominantly from the north-west, the smoke from farm fires will move downwind and drive up the pollution levels in the national capital and surrounding areas. Taking cues from historical trends, we can expect a decrease in farm fires in the coming days as we approach the season’s end,” Kurinji said.

Hiren Jethva, an aerosol remote sensing scientist at the Universities Space Research Association (USRA), the United States, said fires are at their steepest rise since October 25.

“A backlog of stubble burning from October, due to wet and humid weather is likely to have shifted these cases to November, or there could be a systematic delay in the burning season altogether.”

Pawan Gupta, a research scientist at the Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research (GESTAR), said that based on current trends, farm fires in Punjab could surpass last year’s fire count for the period in the next two or three days.