Delhi’s slow start to winter set to continue in December: IMD

Delhi is set to experience a warmer-than-usual December, extending the trend of an above-normal winter seen so far this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Weather scientists attribute this to a series of western disturbances in northern and northwestern India, which are unlikely to bring a significant influx of cold air.

In the forecast for December, IMD said mostly above-normal temperatures are expected in northwest India, including Delhi-NCR.

“The probabilistic forecast shows the maximum and minimum is expected to most likely be above normal in most parts of northwest India, including Delhi-NCR this December,” said IMD director General M Mohapatra, stating there was only active western disturbance in November and one cyclonic circulation towards the end of the month – making the previous month fairly dry and contributing to above normal temperatures last month.

He added that while the current western disturbance has caused snowfall in higher regions, its impact on the plains will be minimal, with a slight dip of 1-2°C in Delhi this week.

For the rest of the week too, both maximum and minimum temperatures will remain around or above normal, the weather office said in the forecast.

In its seven-day forecast, issued till December 8, IMD said that the minimum should hover around 10-11°C till December 6, before dipping to around 9°C on December 7 and 8. Maximum temperatures are expected to drop marginally, settling around 25°C by December 8.

Shallow fog will persist during this period, but dense fog, which contributes to colder days, is not expected due to insufficient moisture in the air.

Also read: IMD predicts mild winter and fewer cold wave days

On Monday, Delhi recorded a minimum temperature of 10.4°C, a degree above normal but lower than the 11.4°C logged a day earlier. Meanwhile, the maximum stood at 27.4°C, two degrees above normal and a marginal rise from 27°C recorded on Sunday.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet meteorology also that said no strong western disturbances are likely in the weeks ahead, which should make for normal to above-normal temperatures for most of December.

“We see days become cold when there is dense fog. With not enough moisture in the air, dense fog is now missing again and we are only seeing shallow spells. For night-time temperature to dip again, we need sufficient snowfall and while this current western disturbance has brought snowfall to Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan, it has been almost missing in the lower reaches. Thus, we expect no significant dip in the plains, even with northwesterly winds blowing,” said Palawat, adding for a sharp dip in temperature, moderate to heavy snowfall was required.

“The minimum should dip by a degree or two in the next few days, but a sharp dip is unlikely. The next western disturbance is expected around December 8 till 10. Unless a significant amount of snow is brought through this spell, we are looking at a relatively warm and dry first half of December,” Palawat added.

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The lowest minimum temperature so far this season was 9.5°C – on November 29, but it has gradually risen over the last three days as the prevailing western disturbance brings some moisture – making nights marginally warmer. By this time last year, the lowest minimum was 9.2°C (November 23); it was 7.3°C in 2022 (November 29) and 9.2°C again in 2021 (November 23).

Historical data shows that by December-end, minimum temperatures in Delhi typically dip to 5°C or lower. Last December, the lowest minimum was 4.9°C on December 15. The lowest minimum in the last decade in December was 2.4°C on December 28, 2019.

Delhi ended November with an average monthly maximum of 29.7°C, which was 1.3°C above normal and the highest for November in at least 13 years, data available from 2011 showed. The average monthly minimum stood at 14.7°C — 1.7°C above normal and the highest since it was 15°C in November 2019.

October was also warmer than usual, with the absence of any western disturbances or rainfall making it Delhi’s hottest October since 1951 as both days and nights on an average were nearly 2°C higher than normal. The average monthly maximum and minimum temperature this October was 35.1°C and 21.2°C, respectively, the highest since It was 36.2°C and 22.3°C, respectively in 1951.

The last rainfall recorded in Delhi was on September 19, with 10mm of precipitation. IMD forecasts normal to below-normal rainfall for northwest India this December. Delhi usually records 8.1mm of rainfall in the month of December, the long-period average shows.