IMD predicts rain in Delhi till April 4, spike in mercury to follow

Delhi is likely to receive very light rain in some parts till Tuesday, owing to a western disturbance that has increased moisture levels in the region, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday, predicting a rise in temperatures in the days that follow.

The forecast for the broader Northwest India region includes prediction of hail and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday in parts of the National Capital Region (NCR), Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

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No rain was recorded in the Capital on Sunday, but Delhi’s maximum temperature still remained below normal with cloudy skies keeping it at 30.3°C – three notches below normal. While spells of isolated rain will keep the maximum temperature below normal till Tuesday, days are expected to gradually become warmer from Wednesday, with the maximum touching 34°C by Friday, officials said.

“We will continue to see light rain with thunderstorm activity in isolated places of Delhi till Tuesday due to high moisture in the air. This moisture is coming from Rajasthan towards Delhi and is leading to localised spells of rain. From Wednesday, the temperature will gradually rise,” said a Met official.

Delhi’s minimum temperature was recorded at 14.9°Con Sunday, which is four notches below normal for this time of the year. In comparison, it was 15.7°C on Saturday. Delhi’s maximum had meanwhile been much cooler on Saturday 28.4°C.

On Monday, the maximum is likely to hover around 32°C and the minimum around 16°C. “There is a chance of some rain being recorded in isolated parts, but mostly, Delhi will see sunny conditions.” the official added.

Delhi ended March with 53.2mm of rainfall, nearly three times the monthly normal average of 17.4mm. So far in April, 3.3mm of rainfall has been recorded, with the normal monthly average being 16.3mm.

Delhi’s air was in the “moderate” pollution range. The 24-hour average air quality index (AQI) was recorded at 128 (moderate) as per Central Pollution Control Board’s national bulletin on Sunday, up from average AQI of 106 (moderate) on Saturday. On Friday, when the city was hit by strong winds and rain, the AQI was just 73 (satisfactory), making it Delhi’s cleanest day since October 11, 2022, when it was 66.

“Delhi’s air quality is likely to remain in the moderate category from Monday until Wednesday. The outlook for the subsequent six days also shows that air quality is likely to remain in the moderate category,” said the Early Warning System (EWS) for Delhi, which is a forecasting model under the ministry of earth sciences.

There were as many as seven western disturbances across India in the month of March. A transition to El Niño is expected by July-September, with chances of the weather phenomenon increasing through autumn, the bureau has said in its long-range forecast. There is a 48% chance of El Nino establishing itself during June, July, and August.

Read here: Heavy rain lashes Delhi-NCR, 9 flights diverted to Jaipur due to poor weather

El Nino, a warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, is strongly associated with hotter summers and weaker monsoon rainfall in India.

In its weather update for April, the IMD said the first half of April is likely to lead to cooler than usual, but the weather will turn towards the latter part of the month, which could turn out to be warmer than usual.