Crackers or not, Diwali to plunge air into ‘very poor’ range in Delhi

If no firecrackers will go off on Diwali, the air quality in Delhi will stay in the very poor range; but may slip into the severe range if half of the crackers burst during 2019 were used, according to two scenarios projected by the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (Safar) for spike in pollution expected on November, the day the festival of lights will be celebrated.

To be sure, the Delhi government has imposed a complete ban on the sale, storage and use of firecrackers until January 1, 2022. Each year, bursting of crackers coupled with local and external pollution sources such as stubble fires cause a spike in air pollution on Diwali.

The Safar forecasts mentioned that northwesterlies will bring in heavy load of pollutants from farm fires in Punjab and Haryana November 4 onwards, and their contribution in total pollution mix of Delhi may go up to 40%.

The analysis, part of Safar’s Diwali forecast, said stubble burning coupled with likely bursting of firecrackers may push air quality in Delhi into the ‘severe’ category (average AQI of 400 or above) for the first time this winter season on the day of Diwali. It may stay in the same zone the next day too, the agency said, and added that a slight improvement can only be expected November 6 onwards.

“We have identified three factors which could play a role around Diwali – number of farm fires touching 4,000 with an overall contribution of 40% on November 5, calm local winds over Delhi and the third is how many firecrackers are burst. If no firecrackers are used, Delhi’s air will be ‘very poor’, but even if some firecrackers are added, the air could be pushed to the ‘severe’ range,” said Gufran Beig, founder and project director at Safar.

Environment Gopal Rai on Tuesday said that the Delhi government has given directions to increase vigilance across Delhi to check the sale, purchase and burning of firecrackers. Rai said till Tuesday, 12,957 kgs of crackers had been seized by the Delhi Police and 32 people have been booked during the anti-cracker campaign from October 27 onwards.

“A special vigilance campaign would be run in the areas on Delhi’s border with other states so that people could not bring in crackers from other states and prevent illegal no purchase, sale, movement, and storage of firecrackers anywhere. In this context, instructions have been issued to Delhi Police and SDMs on behalf of the DPCC (Delhi Pollution Control Committee) today,” said Rai.