‘Covid-19 cases have stabilised in Delhi, restrictions could be lifted’: Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain

Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain said on Wednesday that the number of coronavieus disease (Covid-19) cases has stabilised in the national capital. He also hinted that restrictions clamed in Delhi will be lifted.

"It seems like Covid cases have stabilised in Delhi, soon we will see a decline," Jain told reporters.

"If Covid-19 cases come down in 2-3 days, restrictions will be lifted," he further said, adding that Delhi is likely to see around 25,000 cases today.

The health minister said that the positivity rate can't determine if Covid-19 cases have peaked or not. "The hospitalisation rate has stabilised and cases have plateaued," said Jain.

"Covid-19 cases have started coming down in Mumbai, we will soon see the same trend in Delhi," he added.

While key data indicators in Mumbai suggest that numbers in the city have already started peaking, Delhi is experiencing what could be the first indication that the rise of cases has slowed down, according to an analysis of the Covid-19 data by Hindustan Times.

In Mumbai, the positivity rate has started dropping. Positivity rate (the proportion of daily tests returning positive for Covid-19) is one of the first statistical measures that indicate a reversal in trend. This number has now fallen for five days in a row - the figure was 29.9% last Thursday, 29% on Friday, 28.6% on Saturday, 28.5% on Sunday, 23% on Monday, and touched 18.8% on Tuesday.

As expected, this trend was closely followed by a drop in daily infections, which have now fallen for four consecutive days – there were 20,971 cases on Friday, 20,318 on Saturday, 19,474 on Sunday, 13,648 on Monday, and finally 11,647 on Tuesday.

In Delhi, while cases and positivity rate have not yet started declining, the rapid rise seen over the past two weeks appears to have slowed , hinting that the peak may be approaching - a factor that has been pointed out by several health experts, both government and independent.

Sutra - a mathematical model developed by scientists at IIT-Kanpur and IIT-Hyderabad to assess the peak in Covid-19 cases in India - has predicted that Delhi could see a peak in Covid-19 infections around January 15.