Bihar Assembly Election 2020 : Final round of Bihar voting today

78 of the 243 assembly constituencies in Bihar are voting in the third and the last phase of the state elections on Saturday. Here are factors unique to this phase:

Anti-incumbency factor

The same party has won the last two elections in a majority of constituencies (40 out of 78) going to the polls in the third phase. Of them, 33 were won by parties that are part of the current state government. This makes the anti-incumbency factor significant in this phase of the election.

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The Muslim factor

Muslims comprise nearly 17% of Bihar’s population. Regions voting in the third phase of the assembly elections are home to nearly half of the state’s Muslim population. Every fourth person in this region is a Muslim, making Muslims significant in terms of electoral politics in this phase.

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But a large chunk of the Muslim population is concentrated in a few districts. Of the 15 districts going to the polls, Muslims have a majority share in population in only one district, Kishanganj. They comprise 38%-45% in three other districts – Katihar, Araria and Purnea. The Kishanganj district has only four constituencies, while the other three districts comprise 20 constituencies. This makes Muslim vote significant in only a few areas of the region.

The Muslim population does affect the performance of the parties, but not to a large degree. This is evident in the performance of the parties in the last two assembly elections. In the 2010 assembly polls, the National Democratic Alliance did well across the region but its seat share was lower in the four districts where Muslims have a share of more than 38%. In the 2015 assembly polls, the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance (which included Congress) did better across the region but had a higher seat share in these Muslim-dominated districts. In case of the Congress, the party’s performance in Muslim districts was significantly better than in other districts.

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Best turnout record

In all assembly and Lok Sabha elections held since 2010, the regions going to the polls in the third phase have always had a higher voter turnout. Last year, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the third-phase region recorded 62% turnout, compared to 56% in the second-phase region and 53% in the first-phase region. But within the third-phase region, the turnout has always been higher in four Muslim-dominated districts.