Axis My India Exit poll went horribly wrong in Bihar. It explains why

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | Byhindustantimes.com | Edited by Kunal Gaurav

Nov 11, 2020 08:27 PM IST

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Axis My India said that the overall female voter turnout was 5 per cent more than male, which apparently swing the polls in NDA’s favour.

Axis My India has issued an apology for wrongly predicting the results of 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections in its Exit Poll which favoured Mahagathbandhan to form the government. The pollsters at Axis My India had gained a reputation for correctly calling the elections in the recent past. The India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll had claimed that the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, would defeat the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by bagging 139-161 seats in the Bihar assembly, suggesting a comfortable majority in a 243-member house.

The final results of Bihar Assembly election results came as a major setback for Axis My India since the Exit Poll was way off from the actual results.(Photo by Santosh Kumar/ Hindustan Times)

However, the Grand Alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties was reduced to 110 seats, while NDA crossed the magic figure of 122 to form the government in Bihar. The final results of Bihar Assembly election results came as a major setback for Axis My India since the Exit Poll was way off from the actual results. Pradeep Gupta, Chairman & Managing Director of Axis My India, shared the company’s statement from his Twitter handle, which said that its time to “learn more and hone our technique.”

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“Sorry friends, Axis My India couldn’t call Bihar election correctly. No excuses, time to learn more and hone our technique,” the statement read.

Elaborating on its initial takeaways from the analysis on what went wrong, Axis My India said that the overall female voter turnout was 5 per cent more than male, which apparently swing the polls in NDA’s favour. The company said that the data became available in the public domain only post Exit Poll. It added that the male voter turnout was 1 per cent more than women in the first phase, but the subsequent phases witnessed 6 per cent and 11 per cent more female voter turnout.

“Axis My India predictions are exactly in line with results of the First phase but went amiss for the Second and Third phase. Covid-19 restrictions limited out numbers of women voter interviews,” the company added.