News / Author / Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

Articles by Roshan Kishore

Fastest GDP growth status may not benefit India as in China’s case

The short point is India needs to outperform itself in terms of economic growth to ensure that the fruits of growth are shared by a wider section of the population.

The correct way to measure relative economic performance of a country at a point in time is to look at the ratio of GDP growth in that country and the world economy.(Pradeep Gaur/Mint)

business

Updated on Jan 01, 2019 02:33 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Indian economy in 2018: Dampened sentiments need a cheer-up tablet

India is grappling with the mismatch between economic fundamentals and business sentiments, which appeared to have taken a hit in the aftermath of the demonetisation exercise and the implementation of GST. The government’s perceived differences with the central bank have not helped matters.

Consumer confidence levels, which were resilient until the November 2016 invalidation of high-value banknotes, have tanked 2017 onwards.(Getty Images/iStockphoto)

business

Updated on Dec 31, 2018 09:00 AM IST

ByRoshan Kishore

From invincible to vulnerable: BJP’s seat share to vote share ratio

The year 2018 has completely changed the state of play for the party. The BJP could not come to power in even one large state out of the five – Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana – which went to polls during this year.

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) carry flags during a rally in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh on November 21.(Bloomberg)

india news

Updated on Dec 30, 2018 09:05 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

The GDP debate: Fact for the government, fiction for opposition

The involvement of NITI Aayog in releasing the GDP figures, hitherto the CSO’s sole prerogative, further muddied waters.

india news

Updated on Dec 27, 2018 11:22 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore, New Delhi

Why the farmer suicide debate is counter-productive to understanding India’s agrarian crisis?

In the discourse on agriculture, for instance, farmer suicides are cited as the biggest proof of the agrarian crisis in the country by a large section.

In the discourse on agriculture, fo farmer suicides are cited as the biggest proof of the agrarian crisis in the country by a large section(AFP)

india news

Updated on Dec 27, 2018 07:46 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Agriculture crisis: Farmers finding it difficult to recover their cost of production

Demonetisation and the Goods and Service Tax disrupted economic activity in the informal sector, which seems to have left a lasting effect on food prices.

india news

Updated on Dec 26, 2018 09:25 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore, New Delhi

BSP plays spoiler for Congress and BJP, faces desertion of some core voters

Assembly elections 2018: At the aggregate level, the BSP has improved its performance by winning 10 seats across the three states, which is two more than what it won in 2013. However, this is still five seats fewer than what the party won in the 2008 polls.

The BSP lost its vote share advantage in SC reserved seats in the 2018 polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The fall is much bigger in Madhya Pradesh.(Mujeeb Faruqui/HT File Photo)

elections

Updated on Dec 29, 2018 12:53 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa

Star economists give ideal macro blueprint for India

The document prepared by former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and the 12 other economists, “An Economic Strategy for India” was released in New Delhi on 14 December .

India’s former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan, gestures during an interview with Reuters in New Delhi on September 7.(REUTERS)

india news

Updated on Dec 14, 2018 11:33 PM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

Assembly Elections Results 2018: BJP losses cut across demographics

The Bharatiya Janata Party has seen a decline with urban and rural voters, farmers and non-farmers, and among scheduled castes and tribes.

IThe BJP office in New Delhi. In the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, an improvement in the degree of opposition unity can lead to a reduction in seat share of a party even at similar levels of vote share.(Reuters File)

elections

Updated on Dec 29, 2018 12:54 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa

NDA must rethink the job scenario

The BJP has found it tough to find a balance between its new social allies and old supporters.

While the BJP is still better placed than the opposition in terms of 2019, its challenges have increased on more than one front.(Mohd Zakir/HT File)

analysis

Updated on Dec 13, 2018 07:20 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

Assembly Elections Results 2018: Breaking down the big verdict

What is the reason behind Congress’ turnaround in three key Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh? HT analyses the assembly elections results in these states which were declared on December 11.

A voter after casting his vote in Rajasthan assembly election in Bikaner, Friday, December 7, 2018.(PTI)

elections

Updated on Dec 12, 2018 10:17 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

The BJP is in an unenviable position

As it prepares for 2019, where neither voters nor markets are very pleased with the party

Party Flags at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. The 7%-plus growth rate of the GDP has prevented a massive anger against the BJP in urban India, but the government is unlikely to push a convincing economic narrative as part of its re-election pitch in 2019 even in urban India(Mohd Zakir/HT PHOTO)

analysis

Updated on Dec 29, 2018 12:55 AM IST

ByRoshan Kishore

Assembly Election Results 2018: Why Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh will matter for 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Assembly Election Results 2018: Of the five states where elections have been held, the results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will matter the most in the run-up to 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

A digital board displays the countdown before the counting of the assembly elections at state congress office, in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, on Monday, December 10, 2018.(Himanshu Vyas / HT Photo)

india news

Updated on Dec 11, 2018 09:58 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Putting the $100 billion agricultural exports target in perspective

This, the policy says, is to be achieved through a diversification of the export basket including indigenous, organic and ethnic exports.

The Union Cabinet approved the Agricultural Export Policy, 2018, on Thursday. The policy is aimed at doubling agricultural exports from the current level of $30 billion by 2022.(HT File Photo)

business

Updated on Dec 08, 2018 07:39 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Why RBI’s inflation forecast cut is no good news for farmers?

Lower interest rates can provide tailwinds to investment and private consumption demand in the economy. This is good news. The numbers also point towards an intensification of rural distress, though.

Lower interest rates also point towards an intensification of rural distress.(PTI)

india news

Updated on Dec 07, 2018 03:51 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Why dismissing Gaushala politics as Hindutva is wrong

Stray cattle destroying crops are not just a cause of economic loss, but also a big source of conflict

A bunch of BJP activists sitting outside the local party office in Surkhi assembly constituency in Sagar district listed the cattle menace as the biggest problem for farmers.(HT File Photo)

india news

Updated on Dec 05, 2018 11:53 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Why resolving India’s farm crisis is important

Economic reforms have failed to address the asymmetry between agriculture’s high share in employment and low share in GDP.

Participating farmers in the Kisan Mukti March, in New Delhi, Friday, Nov. 30, 2018. Farmers from 24 states have joined the protest to press for their demands, including debt relief and remunerative prices for their produce.(PTI)

india news

Updated on Dec 01, 2018 12:23 PM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore, New Delhi

New GDP back series raises more questions than it answers

GDP numbers now show the economy performed much better under the current government than Congress-led UPA.

A worker fills sugar into a machine making sugar cubes at a sugar making unit in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. (Image for representation)(Bloomberg file photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 30, 2018 11:01 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Economy doing better under NDA: Govt data

The big take away from the numbers is that the economy has performed much better under the present government.

Responding to the findings, Congress’s chief spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala said, “The entire GDP Back Series Data reflects the desperate attempt of a defeatist Modi Govt to undermine India’s Growth Story over last 15 years.”(AFP File Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 29, 2018 12:10 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Madhya Pradesh elections 2018: Will corruption, rural anger hurt BJP?

There is a broad narrative among voters, Congress and BJP supporters alike, that the BJP government has been infiltrated by highly corrupt and non-performing local actors including MLAs.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with BJP National President Amit Shah (R) and Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.(PTI file photo)

elections

Updated on Nov 28, 2018 10:28 AM IST

Hindustan Times, Bhopal | ByNeelanjan Sircar and Roshan Kishore

Madhya Pradesh assembly election 2018: Will corruption, rural anger hurt BJP in the state?

Madhya Pradesh assembly election 2018: Arithmetic shows that the Congress has a lot of ground to make up vis-à-vis the BJP. The latter won 165 seats in the 2013 elections, with an extraordinary strike rate of 72%.

Madhya Pradesh assembly election 2018: Chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and other leaders flag off the election campaign 'Rath' at state party office in Bhopal on October 21.(PTI File Photo)

elections

Updated on Nov 28, 2018 09:00 AM IST

Hindustan Times, Bhopal | ByNeelanjan Sircar and Roshan Kishore

Madhya Pradesh assembly polls 2018: Understanding the BSP caste arithmetic

Sumaoli assembly constituency (AC) in Madhya Pradesh’s Morena District went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2013. Neetu Satyapal Singh of the BJP won the seat with 40% of the votes polled. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) finished second with 31% votes.

elections

Updated on Nov 27, 2018 09:16 AM IST

Hindustan Times, Bhopal/Indore | ByRoshan Kishore

Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2018: Will farm anger impact poll outcome?

Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2018: Farmers are unanimous that irrigation infrastructure, including power supply, has improved significantly under the Shivraj Chouhan government. Yet, they are not happy with the BJP this time due to price crash.

Farmers recount how the prices they are getting today are only a small fraction of what they used to get earlier.(AP/Picture for representation)

elections

Updated on Nov 27, 2018 09:23 AM IST

Hindustan Times, Bhopal/Indore | ByRoshan Kishore

How BJP, Congress balance inflation and rural distress

The choice between higher purchase prices for farmers and targeting lower overall inflation is a key contradiction in India’s political economy framework

Samples of pulses are displayed in a wholesaler at Khari Baoli spice market in New Delhi, India, on Wednesday, May 30, 3018.(Bloomberg)

india news

Updated on Nov 18, 2018 09:38 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

HT Analysis: Election 2018 may not reflect 2019 Lok Sabha poll result

Predictions based on results of ongoing assembly elections or 2014 national election trends may be misleading

Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan with Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar, State BJP president Rakesh Singh and other leaders flag off the an election campaign in Bhopal on October 21.(PTI Photo)

elections

Updated on Nov 17, 2018 10:17 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Arjun Srinivas

Inflation lowest in year, but it may not be good news

The Indian economy was staring at an inflationary spike due to rising oil prices and falling rupee as recently as a month ago. These fears are not as pertinent anymore. Brent crude has fallen by almost 15% in the last one month.

Samples of pulses are displayed in a wholesaler at Khari Baoli spice market in New Delhi.(Bloomberg)

india news

Updated on Nov 13, 2018 08:24 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

Will better organisation deliver Madhya Pradesh for the BJP?

While the Congress has a comfortable lead over the BJP among both rural voters and farmers in Rajasthan, this does not seem to be the case in MP and Chhattisgarh.

elections

Updated on Nov 11, 2018 10:15 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

Two years after demonetisation, farmers and rural workers are unhappy

The big impact of demonetisation have been on rural India in two ways including the relative erosion of rural agricultural wages and fall bargaining power of farmers in receiving an attractive price for their produce

Two years after demonetisation was announced, rendering 86% of currency in the system invalid, the big impact seems to have been on rural India(HT File Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 08, 2018 12:43 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Warning bells for BJP before 2019? The larger message in Karnataka bypolls

The results will definitely provide a boost to the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the state. But it is important to note that except in Ballari Lok Sabha seat, incumbents have been re-elected in the other four seats.

Former prime minister and JD(S) National President HD Devegowda with former chief minister Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy in Bengaluru, on Oct 20, 2018.(PTI File Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 07, 2018 12:31 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh double than Rajasthan, says Congress’ data analytics unit head

Praveen Chakravarty, chairman of the Congress’ newly constituted data analytics department, speaks about the party’s efforts in the poll-bound states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and others.

The Congress appointed Praveen Chakravarty as the chairman of its newly constituted data analytics department this February.(Bloomberg Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 05, 2018 08:55 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

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Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

The short point is India needs to outperform itself in terms of economic growth to ensure that the fruits of growth are shared by a wider section of the population.

India is grappling with the mismatch between economic fundamentals and business sentiments, which appeared to have taken a hit in the aftermath of the demonetisation exercise and the implementation of GST. The government’s perceived differences with the central bank have not helped matters.

The year 2018 has completely changed the state of play for the party. The BJP could not come to power in even one large state out of the five – Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana – which went to polls during this year.

The involvement of NITI Aayog in releasing the GDP figures, hitherto the CSO’s sole prerogative, further muddied waters.

In the discourse on agriculture, for instance, farmer suicides are cited as the biggest proof of the agrarian crisis in the country by a large section.

Demonetisation and the Goods and Service Tax disrupted economic activity in the informal sector, which seems to have left a lasting effect on food prices.

Assembly elections 2018: At the aggregate level, the BSP has improved its performance by winning 10 seats across the three states, which is two more than what it won in 2013. However, this is still five seats fewer than what the party won in the 2008 polls.

The document prepared by former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and the 12 other economists, “An Economic Strategy for India” was released in New Delhi on 14 December .

The Bharatiya Janata Party has seen a decline with urban and rural voters, farmers and non-farmers, and among scheduled castes and tribes.

The BJP has found it tough to find a balance between its new social allies and old supporters.

What is the reason behind Congress’ turnaround in three key Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh? HT analyses the assembly elections results in these states which were declared on December 11.

As it prepares for 2019, where neither voters nor markets are very pleased with the party

Assembly Election Results 2018: Of the five states where elections have been held, the results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will matter the most in the run-up to 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

This, the policy says, is to be achieved through a diversification of the export basket including indigenous, organic and ethnic exports.

Lower interest rates can provide tailwinds to investment and private consumption demand in the economy. This is good news. The numbers also point towards an intensification of rural distress, though.

Stray cattle destroying crops are not just a cause of economic loss, but also a big source of conflict

Economic reforms have failed to address the asymmetry between agriculture’s high share in employment and low share in GDP.

GDP numbers now show the economy performed much better under the current government than Congress-led UPA.

The big take away from the numbers is that the economy has performed much better under the present government.

There is a broad narrative among voters, Congress and BJP supporters alike, that the BJP government has been infiltrated by highly corrupt and non-performing local actors including MLAs.

Madhya Pradesh assembly election 2018: Arithmetic shows that the Congress has a lot of ground to make up vis-à-vis the BJP. The latter won 165 seats in the 2013 elections, with an extraordinary strike rate of 72%.

Sumaoli assembly constituency (AC) in Madhya Pradesh’s Morena District went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2013. Neetu Satyapal Singh of the BJP won the seat with 40% of the votes polled. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) finished second with 31% votes.

Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2018: Farmers are unanimous that irrigation infrastructure, including power supply, has improved significantly under the Shivraj Chouhan government. Yet, they are not happy with the BJP this time due to price crash.

The choice between higher purchase prices for farmers and targeting lower overall inflation is a key contradiction in India’s political economy framework

Predictions based on results of ongoing assembly elections or 2014 national election trends may be misleading

The Indian economy was staring at an inflationary spike due to rising oil prices and falling rupee as recently as a month ago. These fears are not as pertinent anymore. Brent crude has fallen by almost 15% in the last one month.

While the Congress has a comfortable lead over the BJP among both rural voters and farmers in Rajasthan, this does not seem to be the case in MP and Chhattisgarh.

The big impact of demonetisation have been on rural India in two ways including the relative erosion of rural agricultural wages and fall bargaining power of farmers in receiving an attractive price for their produce

The results will definitely provide a boost to the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the state. But it is important to note that except in Ballari Lok Sabha seat, incumbents have been re-elected in the other four seats.

Praveen Chakravarty, chairman of the Congress’ newly constituted data analytics department, speaks about the party’s efforts in the poll-bound states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and others.

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