The developments related to Soren have created a political buzz in Jharkhand where Assembly elections are barely two months away. Both the JMM and the opposition BJP are closely watching Champai’s next move, a six-term sitting legislator from Saraikela, who earned the tag of ‘Kolhan Tiger’ due to his organisational work in JMM and the resultant political influence he has enjoyed in the tribal-dominated Kolhan division of the state.

Located in the southwestern part of Jharkhand, the Kolhan division is spread across the resource-rich and industrially developed districts of East Singhbhum (Jamshedpur), West Singhbhum and Saraikela-Kharsawan. The division has 14 legislative constituencies in the 81-member Jharkhand assembly.

Soren is the third chief minister from the Kolhan division after Arjun Munda and Madhu Kora. However, the political stature of 67-year-old Soren towers over the other two because of his roots in the movement for a separate Jharkhand state when he had fought shoulder-to-shoulder with JMM-supremo Shibu Soren.

And it is in this context that the politicians and experts are weighing the impact Champai could have on their electoral fortunes in the upcoming assembly polls.

“It’s not that he is called Kolhan Tiger for nothing. While he worked under the watch of our tallest leader Shibu Soren, he is credited with single-handedly building the organisational network in the Kolhan region. In organisational matters, even Guruji (Shibu Soren) would depend on Champi Da in matters related to Kolhan. Though executive president Hemant Soren has literally been in command of the party for the past few years, it would surely be a test for the present leadership to hold on to its cadre in the wake of this crisis,” a senior JMM leader said, requesting anonymity.

“It is difficult to predict the real impact he would have as a rebel as a lot can change in politics in two months. Hemant Soren is no doubt the most established tribal face in the state, but Kolhan has its own ecosystem and the four-decade-old career of Champai has the potential to put a dent. What would be the extent of it is to be seen. It’s not easy to form a new front barely weeks ahead of the polls and emerge victorious. A lot will depend on what decision Champai takes and how effectively he plays the victim care and how much we are able to mitigate it,” the leader added.

Traditionally, Kolhan, which has 14 assembly segments and two Lok Sabha seats, has been a stronghold of the JMM and its ally Congress. Of the 14, nine assembly seats are reserved for scheduled tribes (ST), while one seat is reserved for scheduled castes (SC). In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM swept the region winning 11 seats including the eight ST and the one SC seat.

Two seats including one ST seat went to the Congress while the 14th seat was won by independent Saryu Roy who defeated former chief minister Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur East, leaving the BJP empty-handed in Kolhan.

JMM leaders said Soren has had a strong influence on the tribal seats due to his organisational work and personal connect with people. “People often talk about the way he helped around 3000 persons till now to gets jobs at different levels in Tata Group alone, besides others in other industrial units in the area. After his return from Delhi, he started touring the region, basically a show of strength. It’s good for us as well as that would help us in assessing the situation and making course corrections accordingly,” said a JMM leader, who also has his roots in Kolhan.

The top JMM leadership has remained silent on Soren and his political moves and party spokespersons have been very guarded in their response. JMM spokesperson Manoj Pandey said while Soren is a respected leader, his exit won’t make much of an impact.

“This is Guruji’s party. The history of our party shows that what matters in JMM is our symbol, the bow and the arrow. Some very senior leaders of the party had quit and contested elections on other symbols, but they failed and ultimately returned to the party fold. We still believe that Champai Da won’t take any step that would prove to be self-destructive,” Pandey said.

The opposition BJP, expectedly, has rubbished allegations that they are behind the present crisis. However, party insiders are excited about the development as they think it improves their chances in Kolhan region including in some of the ST seats. A senior BJP leader said while the result was 14-0 for the saffron party in Kolhan in 2019, things are set to change.

“In 2019, the BJP- ALL Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) alliance broke. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatarntrik (JVM-P) led by Babulal Marandi (Full party names please.) was also contesting separately. This time, there is no JVM and AJSU is back in the NDA fold. The Champai factor is only going to dent the INDIA bloc further. Take for example Chakradharpur, which is an ST seat. The JMM defeated the BJP here by around 12000 votes. On the other hand, AJSU and JVM candidates together got 34000 votes,” a BJP leader, who asked not to be named, said.

“In Jaganathpur, the Congress defeated the JVM candidate by around 12000 votes, and the BJP and AJSU together received almost similar votes to the victorious Congress candidate. In Jugsalai, BJP lost to JMM by around 22000 votes, while the AJSU candidate got around 47000 votes. While the NDA gets stronger this time around, the Champai Soren factor is going to dent the INDIA alliance. Even if he dents around five to ten thousand votes in different assembly seats, it could change the dynamics in several seats helping the BJP in the process” the leader added.

An independent political observer Sudhir Pal said Soren’s departure could hit the INDIA bloc more if he decides to form his own front.

“I don’t think BJP has to gain much if he joins them because of the visible lack of trust among the tribals for it. At best, he can then win his own seat or help them in another one or two seats. But if he forms his own party, he can play the victim card and dent into INDIA bloc votes, which could prove crucial in a tight contest. All votes that Champai’s party gets would be at the cost of JMM,” said Sudhir Pal.