What to expect after the new ruling on South Korean President Yoon's impeachment

South Korea’s Constitutional Court is poised to rule Friday on whether to dismiss or reinstate impeached conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol. This will determine his political fate, but it doesn't mean the turmoil caused by Yoon’s short-lived imposition of martial law is over.

Over the last few months, millions of South Koreans have taken to the streets to rally for or against Yoon. Rival politicians have shaved their heads, launched hunger strikes and filed a slew of lawsuits against each other.

Whatever the verdict is, the divisions will likely get worse at home. This will complicate South Korea's efforts to deal with US President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy platform and North Korea’s increasing military cooperation with Russia.

“Whether Yoon’s impeachment is upheld or overturned at the Constitutional Court, it will be difficult to make both sides accept its ruling,” said Hong Sung Gul, a public administration professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “There is a high possibility that bigger chaos will follow.”

Here’s what to expect with the court’s impending verdict on the December 3 martial law decree that is testing South Korea’s democracy.

What might the court do?

Yoon's political fate has been in the hands of the Constitutional Court since the liberal opposition-controlled National Assembly impeached him on Dec. 14.

If the court rules against Yoon, he'll be officially thrown out of office, and a national election will be held for a successor within two months. If the court rules for Yoon, he will immediately return to his presidential duties.

At the heart of the case is Yoon's motivation behind sending hundreds of troops and police officers to parliament after declaring martial law. Yoon says he wanted to maintain order, but some top military and police officers have said that Yoon ordered them to pull out lawmakers to block an assembly vote over his decree.

Yoon's martial law lasted only six hours because lawmakers managed to get in and vote down his decree. No violence and no arrests of politicians happened.

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Yoon says his martial law decree was meant to bring public attention to the “wickedness” of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, which obstructed his agenda and impeached some of his top officials.

His impeachment motion alleges that Yoon violated the Constitution and other laws by suppressing assembly activities, attempting to detain politicians and undermining peace across the country.

What fallout is expected?

Ousting Yoon from office would see huge protests from his supporters, while reinstating him would rekindle huge liberal demonstrations that have been scaled down following Yoon’s impeachment.

The court's rejection of the impeachment of a leader who staged “a self-coup” would raise fundamental questions about the country's political and democratic systems, said Paik Wooyeal, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University.

“There would be a great confusion," Paik said.

Kim Tae-hyung, a politics professor at Seoul’s Soongsil University, said a rejection of Yoon’s impeachment could allow a precedent for future leaders to impose martial law to resolve political deadlocks.

During a court hearing, Yoon said if he's allowed to return to work, he would focus on a constitutional revision and other reform steps to create better governing and election systems. After completing such tasks, Yoon suggested he would leave office early before his single five-year term ends in 2027.

Hong, the professor, said if Yoon sticks to his promise, that could help overcome the current crisis. But political commentator Kim Su-min said Yoon wouldn't likely regain the same level of presidential authority and the opposition would further drive him into a corner, even if the Constitutional Court restores his presidential powers.

Pro-Yoon rallies turned violent in January when protesters stormed the Seoul Western District Court after it approved Yoon’s formal arrest warrant. The protesters attacked police officers with bricks, steel pipes and other objects. The attack injured 17 police officers.

What about Yoon’s rebellion trial?

Aside from his impeachment case, Yoon faces a separate criminal trial for alleged rebellion in connection with his martial law decree. If convicted, he could face the death penalty or life imprisonment.

The Constitutional Court’s endorsement of Yoon’s impeachment could increase prospects for Yoon’s rebellion conviction. But a rejection would mean that the Constitutional Court believed Yoon’s martial law decree wasn’t serious enough to warrant dismissal or maybe wasn’t even illegal.

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Prosecutors would subsequently find it burdensome to raise Yoon’s alleged rebellion at the criminal trial, many experts say.

Kim, the commentator, said Yoon would likely be convicted at his criminal trial, even if his impeachment is overturned.

Prosecutors indicted Yoon only on charges of rebellion because he has presidential immunity from most other criminal prosecution. Some might question whether his criminal trial should continue if his impeachment is overturned at the Constitutional Court.