Ukraine will hold if it gets the arms it needs, says a top general

The circumstances under which Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk assumed control of Ukraine’s ground forces in February could hardly have been less auspicious. The president was publicly feuding with the outgoing commander-in-chief, mobilisation was faltering and Republicans in America’s Congress had delayed a crucial aid package for what would prove to be six months, allowing Russia to regain the initiative.

Yet the general dismisses any idea that his new role might be a poisoned chalice. Despite the recent setbacks on the front line, he insisted Ukraine should not be judged by the “few…who are scared and cry out in panic”. His outgunned soldiers are “standing firm” because they know what is at stake. “Wherever there is Russia, there is nothing. Where thriving towns once stood, now lie skeletons, corpses, and ruins.”

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General Pavliuk says the critical phase of the war will come in the next two months. With American assistance only beginning to reach the front lines, Vladimir Putin’s generals are throwing in all the combat-ready material they have to test Ukraine’s exhausted and undersupplied troops. “Russia knows that if we receive enough weapons within a month or two, the situation could turn against them.”

Ukraine urgently needs more air defence, he says, and the anticipated delivery of F-16 fighter jets by early June will offer a significant psychological boost. But it remains uncertain whether Ukraine will receive the newer versions of the F-16 (block 50 onwards) that are needed to challenge Russia’s bombers. These stay at a distance, out of range of Ukrainian air defence, while dropping heavy guided bombs on front-line positions at a rate of 130 per day.

The commander believes Russia will continue to focus on Luhansk and Donetsk, the eastern districts that have borne the brunt of the war. But intelligence suggests Russian forces will soon stretch defences by attacking the north-eastern districts of Kharkiv and Sumy. “Russia is testing the stability of our lines before choosing the most suitable direction,” the general says.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, General Pavliuk commanded Ukraine’s Joint Forces operation in eastern Ukraine. That gives him an intimate knowledge of Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, two small towns in the Donetsk region that have been the focus of Russia’s latest attacks. Ukraine’s loss of Ocheretyne has enabled Russia to breach the first line of its defences and threaten vital supply routes. The general refuses to comment on reports that miscommunication led to the loss of positions, attributing it instead to “insane” pressure, “overwhelming [Russian] air superiority”, and an artillery ratio that reached 20:1. Over the whole range of the front, Russian guns are firing seven times as many shells as Ukraine’s.

Ukraine still holds Chasiv Yar, a strategic height five kilometres west of Bakhmut, the mostly destroyed city that Russia spent nine months “liberating”. Chasiv Yar is the key to a cluster of towns and cities behind it, the last urban centres of the Donbas that remain in Ukrainian hands. General Pavliuk appears to be preparing public opinion for what some believe to be inevitable. He argues that losing Chasiv Yar would have no “decisive significance”; it is just “a regular urban settlement”.

One of the most urgent tasks on the general’s desk is raising ten new brigades in preparation for the Russian offensive. Although manpower has been a concern since December, when mobilisation largely stalled, General Pavliuk insists equipment, not men, is the main bottleneck. Ukraine desperately needs artillery and armoured vehicles, which it hopes the West will provide.

Part of this new force will be deployed to protect the capital. Two and a half years after the Russian army was stymied there, it has not abandoned its ambition to ultimately take the city, the general says. “Defending Kyiv remains one of our main concerns, no matter how tough it is in the east. It is the heart of Ukraine, and we know the key role defence of the capital will play in the future.”

But General Pavliuk, who was seconded to the capital in 2022 to help stop the attempted blitzkrieg, says Russia’s threat is fundamentally different from what it was at the start of the war. The Russian army can no longer execute sweeping raids on multiple fronts, he says. It is using missiles fresh off the factory line, mere weeks after production, rather than from its once vast stockpiles. Ukraine’s armed forces are also much larger than they were.

The story remains Russia’s strategic failure, he argues. Ukraine’s official estimate is that Russia has suffered over 400,000 killed, captured and wounded. Losing that many soldiers “to seize a small part of one region is disproportionate for any rational mind”. Yet history has shown, he says, that Russia is not governed by rational minds.

Although grim front-line reports keep the general occupied, domestic developments are forcing him to keep an eye on the home front too. On unpopular issues such as mobilisation, he says, every official must show leadership. Ukraine is still a young political nation. Confronted with mortal dangers, some citizens have panicked, and that is natural. But if the country is to survive, people must “overcome panic” and respond to the call to fight, as they do in countries like Israel. “However hard it is, we have no other choice.”

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