The call was the culmination of secret talks that began almost a year ago, between Mr Ocalan, who has spent the past 26 years behind bars, and Turkish officials. These may be the best chance to end a war that has killed more than 40,000 people, displaced millions more and spread from south-eastern Turkey, home to most of the country’s 15m or so Kurds, to the PKK’s mountain hideouts in northern Iraq, and most recently to the plains of northern Syria.

For Turkey, a settlement with the PKK is a chance to dismantle or weaken Kurdish autonomy in Syria, and to prevent what policymakers in Ankara see as a fledgling alliance between the Kurdish insurgents and Israel. For the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, peace could also hold the key to another term in power.

The hard part is what comes next, and what the Kurds get out of it. Turkey’s main Kurdish party, Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM), expects Mr Ocalan’s call to be followed by political talks, new language and cultural rights for the Kurds, perhaps through a new constitution, and an amnesty for PKK fighters. At the bare minimum, DEM expects an end to the repression against it. The government considers it to be the PKK’s political arm, though it denies that. Over the past decade, well over a hundred Kurdish mayors elected to office have been sacked, replaced by government surrogates and sometimes arrested. Scores of other Kurdish politicians have endured the same fate. Selahattin Demirtas, a one-time presidential candidate for DEM’s forerunner, has languished in prison since 2016.

Whether and how Turkey’s government intends to reciprocate is unclear, though presumably Mr Ocalan has received some assurances. Mr Erdogan has made clear he will not abandon Turkey’s war on terror, has so far promised the Kurds no new concessions and has ruled out direct talks with the PKK. Members of his Justice and Development (AK) party suggest that what Turkey is after is not a peace process but the PKK’s unconditional surrender. The ball was now in the PKK’s court, Efkan Ala, a top AK official, said shortly after Mr Ocalan’s statement. “The organisation should seize this chance,” he said, “and comply with the call.”

Turkey has the PKK on the defensive. The group is no longer capable of carrying out large-scale guerrilla attacks inside Turkey. Repeated bombing campaigns, drone attacks and incursions have destroyed many of its bases in northern Iraq. In nearby Syria, the group’s proxy, the People’s Defence Units (YPG), which forms the backbone of the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is facing pressure from both Turkey and the new government in Damascus. Syria’s new leadership, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim president, wants the SDF to disarm and dissolve, and plans to integrate at least some of its fighters into a new army. Turkey, meanwhile, has threatened another ground offensive against the group, unless it comes to terms with Damascus and expels foreign fighters.

The PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq previously signalled it would abide by Mr Ocalan’s call, though some factions may be opposed. Things are more complicated in Syria, where the SDF has more room for manoeuvre, thanks to backing from America and other Western countries, including France. The group has resisted calls by Mr Sharaa to disband, and relied on diplomatic pressure from America to prevent another Turkish invasion.

The SDF has already begun to distance itself from Mr Ocalan’s call. Mazloum Abdi, the group’s commander, said he welcomed the prospect of peace “within Turkey” but suggested his group was not bound by the PKK leader’s statement. “This is only for the PKK,” he said at a press briefing in America, speaking over Zoom. “It’s not related to us in Syria.”

Much depends on the 2,000 or so American troops based in Syria, one of the few things standing between the SDF and Turkish tanks. Mr Erdogan has pleaded with Donald Trump to withdraw troops and outsource security in the region to Turkey’s army and its Syrian proxies. The Americans may indeed not stay for long. According to an NBC report, the Pentagon is drawing up plans to withdraw troops from the region.

There is yet more at play. Mr Erdogan, whose term as president expires in 2028, cannot run again, unless he can persuade parliament to amend Turkey’s constitution or to call snap elections. Because his AK and its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), lack the seats to push through such changes alone, Mr Erdogan may need help from another big party. Critics suspect he will end up using the fledgling peace process, and possible backing from DEM, to get what he wants.