La Nina may not lead to dip in temperatures soon: WMO

La Nina will not lead to any major drop in land surface or sea surface temperatures during the next few months, World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) long-range forecasts stated on Monday.

There is a 50% chance of either neutral or a transition to La Nina during June-August 2024, it added.

WMO has projected that the chance of La Nina conditions rises to 60% during July-September and 70% during August-November.

“Every month since June, 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. The end of El Nino does not mean a pause, in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during the next months,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett in a statement.

The past nine years have been the warmest on record even with the cooling influence of a multi-year La Nina from 2020 to early 2023, WMO warned.

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El Nino peaked in December 2023 as one of the five strongest on record.

“Our weather will continue to be more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere. This is why the Early Warnings for All initiative remains WMO’s top priority. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the anticipated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action,” said Barrett, who is leading a WMO delegation at the UN Climate Change session in Bonn.

“La Niña conditions generally follow strong El Niño events, and this is in line with recent model predictions, although high uncertainty remains regarding its strength or duration. Seasonal forecast models at this time of year are known to have relatively low skills, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere “spring predictability barrier,” WMO said.

The latest Global Seasonal Climate Update of WMO projects that widespread above-normal sea-surface temperatures in all areas are expected to persist outside the near-equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean.

There is therefore widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas until July.

Predictions for rainfall are, in part, consistent with the typical impacts of the early stage of La Niña conditions, including above-normal rainfall in far northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Greater Horn of Africa and the Sahel, parts of southwest Asia and central Maritime Continent.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. The effects of each La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and the interaction with other modes of climate variability. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña produces the opposite climate impacts to El Niño.

In India, an El Nino is associated with harsher summer and weaker monsoon. La Nina, meanwhile, is associated with strong monsoons and above average rains and colder winters.

“Yes, the El Nino hangover may remain for some more days till La Niña gets strong. But for us, once the monsoon sets in, temperatures should come down. In June, models are suggesting, onset may be delayed therefore we should expect high temperatures in June over northern parts of the country,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences and climate scientist responding to the WMO forecast.