Germany polls: How rural Bavaria could help new govt shape its immigration policy
CDU's Freiderich Merz, frontrunner for chancellor, has promised a ‘much tougher stance’ than the one Germany has been following in recent decades.
As Germany heads to polls on Sunday, and with conservative Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) being the frontrunner to succeed Olaf Scholz as chancellor, rural constituencies in the southeastern province of Bavaria could play a key role in determining the seriousness of the new government on the issue of immigration.
Merz has promised a ‘much tougher stance’ than the one Germany has been following in recent decades. Already, the 69-year-old has acknowledged that the “open border policies” of his one-time rival Angela Merkel, Scholz's predecessor and the previous chancellor from CDU, have proved to be ‘disastrous.’
Opinion polls show the Merz-led CDU, along with its permanent Bavarian ally Christian Social Union (CSU), leading at 30 per cent, while the far-right and anti-immigration Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) are a strong second at 20 per cent.
While a CDU-AfD government would enjoy a majority in the 733-seat Bundestag (federal Parliament), the chances of such a partnership are near-zero. Therefore, for Merz to push through his policies, much would depend on which party is the CDU's coalition partner.
According to UK's The Daily Telegraph, an alternative scenario is a “Bürgerliche Mehrheit” or “bourgeois majority”; i.e., the possibility of a centre-right coalition. Under this, the pro-market, liberal Free Democrats (FDP), currently hovering around 5 per cent in opinion polling, would have to gain at least at least 5 per cent of the vote and remain in the Bundestag.
That said, this alone would not be enough. The Bavarian rural constituencies come into play here.
These are: Landau an der Isar, Kempten, and Pfarrkirchen.
Why are these constituencies important?
In Germany, Europe's largest and world's third-largest economy, voters have two votes, one each for a constituency MP, and the other for a party list. To remain in the Bundestag, a party must secure at least 5 per cent votes.
However, the rule does not apply to a party which wins at least three seats.
The FDP last won a seat in 1990, the first time since 1957.
The Free Voters, a junior partner in the CSU-led Bavarian government are polling nationally at around 2 per cent, below the threshold for a representation in the Bundestag. They support immigration “based on the Canadian model.”
The Free Voters are particularly strong in rural Bavaria, and are targeting four seats, in the hope of winning three – Landau an der Isar, Kempten, Pfarrkirchen – which would give them around 20 MPs in Berlin.
This way, along with the FDP ensuring its representation in the Bundestag, a stable centre-Right coalition of CDU/CSU, FDP and Free Voters could then be formed, allowing Merz, if he is, as expected, the next chancellor, to push through his policies as the head of Germany's national government.
