From a red rural county, how American parties operate and why Trump has reason to smile

Brunswick, North Carolina: There are three facts the otherwise divided Democratic and Republican Party officials agree on in this rural county at the border of North and South Carolina in the American South — the broad composition of the electorate, the age profile of voters, and the respective objectives of their party operations on the ground.

On one side of the Brunswick community college, at the county’s Democratic headquarters, the party chair, Shelley Allan, acknowledges that about 40% of the voters are Republicans, 20% are Democrats, and the remaining are unaffiliated but mostly lean Republican. On the other side of the college, at the county’s Republican headquarters, the party chair, William Moore, puts the number at about 55,000 Republican voters, about 27,000 Democrats, and another 50,000 or so unaffiliated voters, most of whom lean Republican.

Both Allan and Moore also tell HT that one-third of the voters are above the age of 65, with the average age being 56. It is home to the retired, a hub of golf courses, and a place where many elderly come to spend time and support their own children who live in nearby counties. The county is overwhelmingly White, with about 10-12% Black voters.

Donald Trump’s real strength comes from counties such as North Carolina’s Brunswick. Step off the highway, get on to the inside forested roads, and all you see are Trump signs supplemented with signs of Republican candidates standing for local and state offices. For Trump to win the 2024 elections, he needs an overwhelming majority of these rural and elderly White Republican counties in swing states to turn out to vote for him. That is Moore’s aim.

Kamala Harris’s real vulnerability comes from counties such as Brunswick, for Democrats have historically remained weak in the rural south, at least since the 1960s when the White Southerners switched to Republicans in the wake of the civil rights movement; the party is also weak among older voters. And so her campaign’s best hope is to get the vote out among existing Democratic supporters here to reduce Trump’s margin, and make up for it elsewhere in the state. That is Allan’s aim.

The Republican operations

The Republican office has a huge cutout of Trump and his wife, Melania. Moore is on his computer inside with the party vice chair, both in their 60s. He says that Brunswick is mostly a smattering of small towns and rural areas. “For us here, the two big issues are economy and immigration.” Asked if the county had a high presence of immigrants, Moore said, “Not really. But it is a part of the national conversation. And our small Hispanic population has the lowest crime rate of all groups. Hardworking legal immigrants are not the problem.”

Moore claimed that the county’s Republican voters and a majority of the unaffiliated — “even they are Republican 2:1, we know this because of the party ballots they ask for on days of party primaries” — back Trump. “It is about his record. He did a superior job. Covid took the air out a little, but people across all groups had more money in their pockets. We ask a simple question: are you better off now or were you better off under Trump? It is simple. He is also no longer the newbie on the block and his learning curve will be shorter.”

The core aim of Republican operations, Moore said, was to get the vote out. “For this, we knock doors of our registered and unaffiliated voters. We don’t go into Democratic houses. That won’t work. We found money for six electronic billboards with Trump signs on the main county roads where there is high traffic. We have static boards. We have 2,000 Trump-Vance signs and gave it to our voters since it is more effective for someone to see their neighbour backing a candidate.” In this county, the party itself is running the operations, unlike in many other swing counties in swing states, where Republican “get out the vote” operations have been outsourced to Trump affiliated outfits such as Elon Musk’s political action committee or Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point.

Asked about the mob attack on US Capitol on January 6 2021, Moore reiterated what has clearly become the Republican Party line that doesn’t align with facts — it was a “setup”, Trump didn’t instigate the riots, Democrats did it. Asked about Republican misinformation about hurricane relief response — Hurricane Helene hit parts of the state and Republicans falsely claimed that the federal government had diverted funds elsewhere — Moore said, “The fact is that the response was delayed and inadequate.”

The Democratic operations

Inside the Democratic Party office, Amy and Mark, a retired couple who moved from Ohio to North Carolina some years ago — “from the frying pan into the fire”, Amy joked — were sorting out pamphlets, guiding voters to the polling center, and taking reports from volunteers who have just returned after a round of door-knocking.

Mark, who was also a precinct chair, said that he was heartened by the number of voters who were signing up to receive Democratic newsletters, but was also disheartened by what he termed misinformation. “That has been the biggest challenge. We were on a cruise outside the state and we were asked how the federal government didn’t give money to hurricane victims because they had given it to illegal immigrants to buy homes. Someone had watched this on Fox News. It is unbelievable how quickly this spreads, how difficult it is to counter it.”

Allan, the party chair, said their main job here was to get the Democratic voters out and persuade the unaffiliated. “We don’t go into Republican homes to canvass and get into super controversial conversations. There is no point. We also aim to get people to vote for our candidates down ballot for the local races. Infrastructure hasn’t kept up with development in this county and local Republican officials are responsible for that.” Moore countered the allegation and spoke about how development was in line with economic needs and regulations.

Allan said they were enthused by support of the unaffiliated and claimed a Republican had told a Democratic poll volunteer at a booth recently how she voted for Harris because she disliked Trump. Allan also suggested that having a younger state chair of the party who had reached out to rural areas and campuses and traditionally non-Democratic voters would help in this cycle. “I think polls aren’t capturing the silent vote for Harris.”

But an unacknowledged challenge that Democrats face is that many of their volunteers and voters have moved from states up north, a fact that local Republicans use in political conversations to suggest that “outsiders” are attempting to change the South’s way of life and political culture.

American political parties are loose, volunteer-driven, umbrella coalitions that usually get active in election cycle. For Trump and Harris, party operations on the ground, the ability to mobilise voters in close races, and persuade the unaffiliated will eventually mark the difference between a victory and a loss. Brunswick is a microcosm of what’s happening in the rest of America in this election season. And if it is a sign of rural America’s mood, Trump has reason to smile.