Explained: The US political row over funding Ukraine

New Delhi: Differences have emerged between the Democrats and Republicans on whether the US, a key ally of Ukraine, should continue funding the nearly 22-month war in Ukraine amid warnings that the existing funding will run out by the end of the year.

The divide was on full display when the Senate on December 6 failed to pass a national security bill (H.R. 815) that included additional security assistance to Ukraine, days ahead of its scheduled winter break.

The vote, 49 to 51, fell short of the 60 votes needed to move it forward, despite the Democratic majority in the upper chamber of US Congress. All 49 Senate Republicans voted against the bill. The Senate has delayed its holiday recess and is expected to hold the vote again this week.

The contention

The Republicans have two main oppositions to the funding bill. First, they want the Biden administration to include sweeping immigration and asylum reforms on the border with Mexico amid record migration to the US. Second, some GOP members are not convinced that the US should keep funding Ukraine after its counteroffensive that began nearly six months ago failed to produce significant results. According to expert assessment, the fighting on the ground has stalled.

In an interview with The Economist, Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny, said, “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”

At the current level of technological innovation, “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” he concluded.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US lawmakers in Washington DC in an effort to encourage them to vote in favour of the bill. Zelensky made it clear to them that if Ukraine loses, Russian President Vladimir Putin wins, according to Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer.

Zelensky also held a one-on-one meeting with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is a dealmaker in the next stage of the process. The bill, if it passes the Senate, will then have to go through the House – where Republicans hold a slim majority.

But Johnson didn’t appear particularly moved by Ukraine’s plight.

“What the Biden administration seems to be asking for is billions of additional dollars with no appropriate oversight, no clear strategy to win, and none of the answers that I think the American people are owed,” Johnson reportedly said after the meeting with Zelensky.

Losing the war

The Biden administration and Ukrainian officials have warned that the inflow of funding was essential to ensuring Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. On December 4, White House budget director Shalanda Young, in a letter to congressional leaders, said, “I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks.”

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“Cutting off the flow of US weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories,” she warned.

As of July 2023, nearly 47% of the $100 billion direct military assistance to Ukraine has been provided by the US, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

In a report last week, the institute said, new pledges of aid had fallen to their lowest since the start of the war. The report said new military, financial and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine between August and October 2023 fell almost 90% drop compared to the same period in 2022.

At a summit last week, the European Union also failed to pass a $55 billion aid package for Ukraine.

According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, “A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit”.

A senior Ukrainian army general told Reuters on December 18 that Ukraine had scaled back some military operations because of shortages caused by the lack of foreign assistance.

“There’s a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet (shells) – that’s 122 mm, 152 mm. And today these problems exist across the entire frontline… The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we’re redistributing it. We’re replanning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them,” said Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi.

Chances of breakthrough

Hectic negotiations have continued for weeks between the two parties on the contours of the new policies but on Sunday it was not clear if they would be able to reach a consensus this year.

When asked if there was going to be a deal before the New Year, GOP Senator Lindsey Graham told on NBC’s Meet the Press that the two sides were nowhere close to deal.

“We feel like we’re being jammed,” he said, adding, “We’re not anywhere close to a deal. It’ll go into next year.”

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin on the other hand told CNN’s State of the Union that negotiators are “moving in a very positive way”.

“I’m very encouraged. I’m very optimistic they’re moving in a very positive way,” Manchin said.

The Senate is expected to meet again sometime this week though no formal schedule has been decided. But as of yet, there seems to be “framework agreement” to vote on. But even if the Senate manages to pass the bill this time, it still has to go through the House which remains on recess till the new year.