Asteroid 2024 YR4, over 50m in size, could hit Earth: Report

Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object which is more than 50 metres now, currently has a 1.2 percent chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency (ESA) as of January 29, 2025. NASA's earlier analysis indicated a slightly higher probability of over 1 per cent, meaning there is roughly a 99 percent chance it will miss Earth.

An impact from the asteroid could result in an “airburst”, a powerful explosion in the atmosphere, or create an impact crater if it strikes the Earth's surface, as reported by Space.com

The asteroid is about half the width of a football field and will pass very close to Earth on December 22, 2032, coming within approximately 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometres). However, orbital uncertainties mean that its close approach could potentially lead to a direct impact.

Also Read | NASA's Sunita Williams breaks spacewalk record during extended ISS mission

NASA has noted that similar objects have previously risen on the risk list, only to later be removed after more data became available. As additional observations are made, the asteroid’s impact probability could change, potentially reducing the risk.

When was 2024 YR4 first discovered

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered on December 27, 2024, at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, was quickly flagged by automated systems for its small potential to impact Earth on December 22, 2032. With an estimated size ranging from 40 metres to 100 metres, the asteroid could cause significant damage to a local region if it were to hit, though impacts of this size occur only once every few thousand years.

The asteroid quickly climbed to the top of the European Space Agency's (ESA) asteroid risk list, prompting astronomers to begin priority follow-up observations using global telescopes to refine the asteroid's size and trajectory. Based on these observations, 2024 YR4 is now believed to likely be larger than 50 meters, with an impact probability exceeding 1 per cent in the coming 50 years.

As a result, the asteroid meets the criteria for activation of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), both UN-endorsed groups. It is currently rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants further attention.

SMPAG, led by ESA, facilitates global information exchange, fosters collaborative research and mission opportunities, and handles near-Earth object threat mitigation planning for asteroid 2024 YR4.