The BJP has a problem on its hands in Karnataka | Analysis
In Karnataka after nearly 5-6 failed attempts, the BJP finally ensured that some of the coalition members quit. That reduced the strength of the 224-seat assembly (one more is nominated) and the BJP, which had won 104 seats in last year’s state elections, ended up with a majority in the assembly.
On the surface, things look rosy for the saffron party in Karnataka. As part of its national Ashwamedha Yagna, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) last month managed to successfully topple the year-old Congress – Janata Dal (Secular) coalition government in Karnataka and install its own government under BS Yediyurappa’s leadership. For those who didn’t get the mythological Ashwamedha Yagna, it is an ancient Indian ritual horse sacrifice where an emperor would let loose a horse with some guards. Whichever territory the horse entered, the ruler had to acknowledge the suzerainty of the emperor. Those who dared to seize or challenge the horse, invited war.
The BJP has unleashed its own version of Ashwamedha through the country after its spectacular repeat win in May 2019. Witness the defection of Congress MLAs in Goa, in Sikkim where SDF members shifted loyalties en masse, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party leaders switching allegiance in Andhra Pradesh or the steady dribble of Trinamool Congress leaders in West Bengal across the spectrum moving to the national party. The signs are clear.
In Karnataka after nearly 5-6 failed attempts, the BJP finally ensured that some of the coalition members quit. That reduced the strength of the 224-seat assembly (one more is nominated) and the BJP, which had won 104 seats in last year’s state elections, ended up with a majority in the assembly.
So the saffron party must be sitting pretty in its southern beachhead. Right?
A deeper look, however, indicates that things are far from hunky-dory. First, the BJP is still overly-dependent on one leader, Yediyurappa, and his ability to bring in the Lingayat vote to come to power. The BJP high command had to make an exception to ensure that 76 -year-old BSY. as Yediyurappa is called in the state, remains at the helm. Usually anybody over the age of 75, is eased out of a leadership role under a rule introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP boss Amit Shah. In Karnataka, however, BSY remains almost irreplaceable for the party.
In other states where the BJP is in power, the saffron party high command prefers to have a leader who doesn’t come from a dominant community in the state. So it opted for Devendra Fadnavis (Brahmin) in Maratha-dominated Maharashtra, Madan Lal Khattar in Haryana where Jats are politically-influential, Raghubar Das, a non-tribal at the helm of the tribal state of Jharkhand and Yogi Adityanath, a Thakur at the helm of Uttar Pradesh in a post-Mandal political landscape. Karnataka is the sole exception where BSY, who is a Lingayat that makes up for 17% of the state’s population. Sooner rather than later, the BJP high command will have to find a replacement for Yediyurappa.
BSY, even at 76, remains extremely ambitious and both his sons – including the elder who is a second-term MP from Shivamogga – are waiting in the wings. When the party high command tried to build an alternate leadership by giving its prominent Dalit face Arvind Limbavalli greater visibility by making him in-charge of Lok Sabha elections in Telangana, sections of the party are believed to have backstabbed him. A video where he is allegedly seen in a compromising position was promptly leaked to the media. This video incident was even used by a JDS minister on the floor of Karnataka assembly during the trust vote of the Kumaraswamy government. A tearful Limbavalli - who was tipped to become the next president of Karnataka BJP – was forced to ask the Speaker to order a probe into the veracity of the video. So the eventual race for succession is neither going to be smooth nor easy.
PM Modi and Amit Shah will also have to take a call on what to do with the ‘rebel’ MLAs from the Congress and JD(S) who helped topple the coalition Kumaraswamy government. Unless the courts intervene, the Election Commission will need to conduct by-polls in 17 assembly segments within six months. Rewarding the rebels – several of them who are also businessmen with dodgy reputations - would upset the long-term loyalists in the party. While those who challenged the Ashwamedha horse In Karnataka have been defeated, it remains to be seen how those who helped defeat the challengers would be rewarded, without creating another cycle of dissidence. The BJP has a tough challenge on its hands.
