What Le Pen’s troubles mean for Europe’s rightward shift
Her party, National Rally, has close ties with the Dutch Freedom Party, Austria’s Freedom Party, AfD, and the Italian Northern League — all far-Right outfits
The worst fears of the French far-Right were confirmed when its most recognisable leader, Marine Le Pen, was convicted of embezzlement of public funds and handed a five-year ban on running for political office by a Paris criminal court on March 31. The French presidential elections are due no later than April 2027, and Le Pen was a leading candidate. Le Pen has tried thrice to be president and failed, so this was probably her last chance.
Le Pen’s conviction refers to a period when she was a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2017, and she was accused of hiring four fictitious assistants, including her own sister. Purely on the merits of the case, there is no doubt that Le Pen is guilty. But in the politically charged world of today, nothing that concerns the far-Right can ever be purely legal. So, the case has assumed political ramifications in France and elsewhere. Reactions to Le Pen’s conviction came thick and fast. The Kremlin’s spokesman accused European governments of violating democratic norms. Hungary’s Victor Orban said rather dramatically in French, “I am Marine!” Italy’s deputy prime minister (PM) spoke for the European far-Right when he said that the judgement was politically motivated. President Donald Trump called Le Pen’s conviction a “big deal”, saying she was the leading candidate before adding sarcastically that “it sounds like this country”.
Opinion in France on Le Pen’s conviction is bitterly divided. Supporters of Le Pen are convinced that this is part of a larger conspiracy to prevent the far-Right from attaining power. Consider the fact that Le Pen’s political party, National Rally, has the largest number of seats — 126 out of a total of 577 — in the lower house after the elections held in July last year. Le Pen has since reacted angrily saying that it is not just a case of her candidature being eliminated, but the disenfranchisement of more than 11 million French voters who support her and her party. The rest of the political spectrum, on the other hand, are taking the line that the judgement is evidence that the judiciary in France is independent and that no one is above the law. That said, France is on the edge, over how the sympathisers of National Rally will react.
Is this the end of the road for Le Pen? Well, there remains a narrow path for her to salvage her political future. She has appealed her conviction and if the courts decide by summer of 2026 to overturn her conviction, she will then be free to run again in presidential elections. Till then, she is free to remain as an MP. Her heir apparent is a young leader whom she anointed as the party president in 2022. Jordan Bardella is extremely popular among the far-Right electorate. Till now, conventional wisdom was that if Le Pen became the French president, then her PM would be Bardella. Now, some political pundits suggest that Bardella can lead the party to victory, and then, as President of France, appoint Le Pen as PM. There is a bit of rivalry between the two leaders, although Bardella has been careful to support Le Pen so far. Bardella, who does not have a college degree, is a political firebrand and comes from the most disadvantaged Paris district of Seine Saint Denis. Referring to Muslims in France, he has often said that French civilisation could die because of immigrants who will change customs, culture and “the French way of life”.
How will all this impact the French far-Right’s prospects in the presidential elections? The prevalent view is that it will lead to a surge in support for the National Rally, even catapulting them to power. But the French far-Right knows only too well that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip. Elections are months, if not a couple of years away.
In September 2022, Italians voted a far-Right dispensation to power, headed by PM Georgia Meloni. Since assuming power, Meloni has tried to play a balancing act between defending Italy’s interests and that of Brussels, not being shy to call the European Commission out. She is now close to the Trump administration and believes the EU must work out a modus vivendi with Washington rather than confront it, despite the tariffs.
With Italy already in the far-Right camp, if France lurches towards sharply rightward, it will be a big deal for Europe. That leaves Germany among the major European countries. Germany is grappling with the rise of the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which did extremely well in provincial elections held in September 2024. There have been calls to ban it altogether, but there is no consensus on the issue. US vice-president JD Vance met AfD leader Alice Weidel on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Elon Musk is happy to part with money too, if AfD wishes. Should things change somehow in Germany, the far-Right would have achieved legitimacy in Italy, France and Germany--something impossible to ignore in Europe.
France’s National Rally maintains close ties with the Dutch Freedom Party, Austria’s Freedom Party, Belgium’s Flemish Interest, AfD, and the Italian Northern League — all budding far-Right outfits. With anti-immigration sentiment on the rise, increase in refugees from Ukraine and Syria, economic problems aggravated by a global downturn, and geopolitical turbulence unleashed by Donald Trump, the political ground is fertile for the rise of the far-Right in Europe, which is now a question of when and not if.
Mohan Kumar is former Indian ambassador to France, and dean and professor at OP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal