Let's start with Mizoram. With just one Lok Sabha MP, this state is the least consequential as far as the 2024 arithmetic is concerned. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), despite being a part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is fighting the elections against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as well. While part of the MNF’s politics is explained by its historical antipathy towards the Congress, there is also merit in the argument that regional parties in small north eastern states are unlikely to burn their bridges with the BJP (as the ruling party with a command on Union government’s resources) despite disagreements over local issues of critical importance. The ethnic strife in Manipur and the military coup in Myanmar are two such issues dominating the poll discourse in Mizoram. For those who care to understand and engage, Mizoram elections are yet another example that political economy in the northeast is very different from the way it is understood in rest of India.

On to Chhattisgarh.

With a three-fourth majority in the 2018 elections, Chhattisgarh is for the Congress to lose. Chhattisgarh, to be sure, is a very diverse state. Two sub-regions in the state, namely Bastar plateau (12 assembly constituencies) and Northern Hills (14 ACs) have a large share of Scheduled Tribe (ST) population while the Chhattisgarh Plains (64 ACs) have a large population of Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The Congress won 11, 14 and 43 ACs in the Bastar, Northern Hills and Chhattisgarh Plains sub-regions in in 2018. This number was 1,5 and 32 in 2008 and 8, 7 and 24 in in the 2013 elections. 2013 and 2008 numbers for Chhattisgarh clearly show that the Congress was not very far from the majority mark even in these two elections. What made the traditionally competitive Chhattisgarh — even in 2003 the BJP and Congress had 50 and 37 MLAs, respectively — give a landslide to the Congress in 2018?

Reportage from the 2018 and the ongoing campaign seem to suggest that the Congress’s promise of additional bonus in addition to the Minimum Support Price (MSP) on rice procurement was the game changer in the elections. The fact that the BJP has outdone the Congress's existing policy — the BJP has promised procurement of 21 quintal of paddy per acre at ₹3,100 compared to the Congress government's current policy of procuring 20 quintal per acre at ₹2,610 — suggests that it is making amends for the 2018 loss. This is yet another example where the BJP has departed from its principled position of not giving bonus for crop procurements. It remains to be seen whether the Congress outdoes the BJP in procurement prices for paddy when it releases its manifesto. Whatever the final results are, the paddy politics in Chhattisgarh is another proof that asset-based welfare schemes and income transfer policies are complements rather than substitutes in Indian politics.

In Madhya Pradesh, ironical as it sounds, the BJP's biggest challenge is of its own making. In 2018, the Congress managed to finish marginally ahead of the BJP in terms of seats. The latter still had a 0.1 percentage point lead in terms of vote share vis-à-vis the Congress. The BJP derailed the process of creative destruction its state leadership. Had the Congress run the government for five years — it lost power after defections to the BJP in 2020 — the BJP would have had an opportunity to organically develop a new face or reinvent Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s appeal, who has been the CM since 2005 barring the 2018-20 period when the Congress was in power. Chauhan could either be gone or look like an opposition leader instead of CM for 18 years.

While the BJP senior leadership, especially the prime minister or the home minister, is yet to endorse Chauhan’s claims for the chief minister’s post publicly, he himself has been throwing freebies at the problem. Nothing could be a bigger irony than this as Chauhan made a mark in politics as someone who transformed agriculture in his state by adopting a pro-active approach to public investment. Given the fact that agricultural prices are doing better than they were in 2018, the BJP is unlikely to face as much rural anger as it did last time. But, Chauhan’s reverse evolution from transforming agriculture to throwing freebies also shows that politics, minus rapid economic transformation cannot always be forward-looking and progressive in its economic outlook. Irrespective of who wins Madhya Pradesh, the state’s finances are bound to worsen.

As for Rajasthan, there are many ways to look at this contest. Ashok Gehlot’s Congress government has really upped the ante on social welfare and populism. To be fair, it has thrown more than just money at problem by trying to enact laws such as the one for gig economy workers. Should the election results be considered a referendum on these policies and programmes?

The single most important issue will be Gehlot himself. He has successfully fought a factional battle in the state Congress and the unity which is being projected right now seems to have happened on his terms. Even in the 2018 elections, Gehlot fielded rebel candidates and got them to win, many of whom have been given tickets this time. While the Congress high command has accepted Gehlot’s supremacy in the state, the BJP still seems to be in a dilemma as far as the question of former chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia is concerned. She is not being projected as the chief minister candidate, but has not been completely sidelined, as many of her loyalists have been given party tickets.

The 2023 Rajasthan contest is a fight between the old and the new political order in the state. Gehlot’s victory against a BJP without a chief minister face will be yet another validation of the old heavyweights in the state and weaken respective high-commands in both parties. If he loses, the old order within both the BJP and the Congress will be sidelined for good.

And finally, Telangana. If there is one thing which epitomises the Congress’s crises in 2014 and 2019 elections, it is its rout in what was undivided Andhra Pradesh. The Congress, under its charismatic leader Y S Rajshekhar Reddy won 29 and 33 out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in undivided Andhra Pradesh in the 2004 and 2009 elections, respectively. This fell to zero in 2014 and three (zero in Andhra Pradesh and three in Telangana) in the 2019 elections. In the 2020 Hyderabad municipal polls, the BJP actually managed to push to the Congress to a distant third.

Throughout its history, the Congress has never recovered in a state if it has fallen below the 20% vote share threshold. Almost all reportage from Telangana suggests that the Congress is on a revival path and seems to have regained at least the second position by surging ahead of the BJP. If the Congress manages to wrest Telangana from the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), it might open a door for the party in Andhra Pradesh too and generate significant tailwinds for its prospects in all of south India. Even if the Congress finishes a close second and significantly ahead of the BJP, it will have enough reason to be happy. However, if the BJP manages to finish ahead of the Congress, it will only add to the latter’s difficulties ahead of the 2024 elections.

Is there anything else to the state elections apart from state specific factors? One last point can be made. If the BJP loses a significant vote share — anything below 35% will fall in this category — in the three Hindi belt states, especially Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, it will have reason to worry. This is because, it could be a sign that not just the floating voter, but even its core voters are angry with the party. If that has happened, it will create a doubt whether they will return to ensure a big Lok Sabha victory for the BJP in 2024 like in 2019. Narrow victories for the Congress, like in 2018, might not mean anything for 2024.

We will able to answer all this question with greater clarity on December 3.

Every Friday, HT’s data and political economy editor, Roshan Kishore, combines his commitment to data and passion for qualitative analysis in a column for HT Premium, Terms of Trade. With a focus on one big number and one big issue, he will go behind the headlines to ask a question and address political economy issues and social puzzles facing contemporary India.