“Any emissions growth — even 1% — is a failure,” Rob Jackson, a professor of earth system science at Stanford University and chairman of the Global Carbon Project, an international group, told AP. “We can’t afford growth. We can’t afford stasis. It’s cuts or chaos for the planet. Any year with higher coal emissions is a bad year for our health and for the Earth.”

Carbon dioxide emissions from coal grew 1.6% last year. Many communities, primarily in Asia, switched from natural gas to coal to avoid high natural gas prices that were worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the IEA said.

Renewable energy is key

Last year’s level of emissions, though a record high, was nevertheless lower than experts had expected. Increased deployment of renewable energy (RE), electric vehicles and heat pumps together helped prevent an additional 550 megatons of carbon dioxide emissions, the IEA said.

“Though emissions continue to grow at worrisome levels, a reversal that would help achieve the climate goals that nations have committed to remains possible," said John Sterman, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan Sustainability Initiative. Nations must subsidise renewables, improve energy efficiency, electrify industry and transportation, set a high price for carbon emissions, reduce deforestation, plant trees and rid the system of coal, Sterman argued. “This is a massive, massive undertaking to do all these things, but that’s what’s needed,” he said.

India’s renewable status

To understand the RE challenges and where India stands today, read the crucial IEA report with another interesting report that came out around the same time on India’s progress in energy transition, Indian States’ Electricity Transition, released by Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and Ember.

The authors have analysed 16 Indian states that account for 90% of the country’s annual power requirement on four key dimensions of electricity transition: Decarbonisation (state’s preparedness to shift away from fossil-based power), the performance of the power system (state’s ability to incentivise greener market participation), the readiness of the power ecosystem (state’s power system reliability to ensure electricity supply for the transition, and policies and political commitments (state’s policies to push for power sector decarbonisation).

The good news is that several Indian states — Karnataka, Gujarat, Haryana, and Punjab — have shown notable clean electricity transition performance, with considerable efforts in preparedness and committed capabilities to promote clean electricity.

Karnataka is the only state that scored well across all the dimensions of clean electricity transition identified in this study. It was the best-performing state in decarbonising its power sector, the performance of its power system and the readiness of its power ecosystem. It also has conducive policies and political commitments for a smoother transition.

Gujarat was a little behind Karnataka in terms of decarbonising its electricity sector. Similarly, Haryana and Punjab have shown promising preparations and implementations for electricity transition.

Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal must expand their potential and transition commitments as they have many areas to improve upon to strengthen their clean electricity transition performances.

The three fared lower than their counterparts in decarbonising their power sectors and the performance of their power systems. The power systems in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh require further improvements to support a clean transition. For West Bengal, while its power system showed better performance than the other two states regarding readiness to transition, a move away from a fossil fuel-intensive power sector requires more proactive policies and political will.

Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu have started their clean electricity transition, but progress has not been consistent across all the dimensions.

Recommendations to accelerate the sub-national electricity

a) Multi-dimensional efforts are needed to ensure an effective and sustainable electricity transition. Efforts are required to decarbonise the supply-side through more renewable deployment and revamp the demand side through energy-efficient intervention. In addition, strengthening transmission infrastructure is crucial for better integration of renewables.

b) States should increase participation in green market mechanisms through more favourable policies like open access and banking of power. Innovative bilateral financial market mechanisms like Virtual Power Purchase Agreements and Contracts for Difference (CfD) have huge potential to open the market.

c) State-level data availability and transparency need improvement to measure and track progress. The Centre and states need to coordinate better to regularly capture state-level data updates on existing national portals.

d) States should ensure effective and timely implementation of clean electricity transition policies like no coal, green manufacturing, direct benefit transfers, green energy open access and more.

Finally, and this is the most crucial ask, the report highlights that several states must also bridge the gap between the intent of their electricity transition policies and their implementation.

The views expressed are personal