The impression conveyed was that Mr Modi believed that he had been elected as PM despite mainstream media, which he saw as having carried out a sustained campaign against him for a good 12 years since the Gujarat Riots of 2002 (incidentally, the Opposition disagrees and blames the same media for enabling Modi’s rise, in a classic instance of how the same situation can be perceived so differently by opposing sides). PM Modi preferred to communicate directly with citizens, going over the heads of mainstream journalists via social media, radio or digital vehicles such as My Gov India and the Narendra Modi App. A substantial part of his messaging was also reserved for political speeches, which given our system of perennial elections, offered ample occasions.

If election results and popularity polls were indices, PM Modi’s media strategy has worked just fine. Though there may have been disenchantment among some affluent sections of society — traders, businessmen, intelligentsia — his core constituency swelled as the 2019 general elections proved. There was a loss of sheen in his international image, because of a set of domestic initiatives which were inadequately understood outside, and because of the tendency to tar all right-wing leaders with the same brush as Donald Trump, especially during Covid management. But India’s stature had risen substantially on the global stage for PM Modi to worry about this. With international institutions and economists projecting double digit economic growth, India appeared to have weathered the Covid-19 storm better than many had predicted. So, it all seemed hunky-dory till the second tidal wave of Covid-19 arrived and in no time engulfed the nation.

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While no one could have foretold the scale and ferocity of the second wave, the government was caught totally unprepared. In 2020, the virus arrived in India later than in the West. That gave us time to get our act together, though it was far from anything close to what was necessary. However, India fared better than many other countries on one front -- that was communication.

The PM led this effort from the front -- addressing the nation and building morale through various creative means (albeit mocked by his critics) such as the Janata curfew and applauding the work of corona warriors. There were daily briefings by the government. The Arogya Setu App, though not fool-proof, was rolled out to trace infections. Transparent dashboards were created to track the spread of the disease, recoveries and deaths and resources were mobilised — hospital beds, doctors and health care workers. The National Disaster Management Act was invoked and a nationwide lockdown was imposed.

Despite severe dislocations and disruptions, there was continuous central monitoring and advisories were issued from the home ministry based on real time feedback on the situation across the country. The nation went into a war mode even as it was dealing with a serious face-off with China on the northern frontiers.

Cut to 2021, and it is a different world altogether. There is a veritable carnage across cities and the countryside that does not bear repetition. Scenes of death and devastation are being relentlessly beamed on national and international media. There is not a family which has not been touched by the virus in one form or the other. Almost every Indian has lost someone in their circle. Along with the smell of funeral pyres, public angst is blowing in the wind. The government is at the receiving end of the most mordant criticism it has faced since its formation. Some are already calling this the worst year in independent India’s history.

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Rumours fly thick and fast in any crisis. It is often difficult to sift fact from fiction. If the problem is localised, it may be possible to isolate information flow. But, when the country is ablaze, remaining silent is not an option, especially in this digital age when news travels at the speed of light. No one understands this better than PM Modi. Therefore, his relative silence at this juncture is mystifying.

The PM has been interacting with chief ministers and officials, with the latest ones being the conference with district magistrates on Thursday, and his interaction with frontline workers in Varanasi on Friday, where he expressed his deep sorrow for the losses during this wave. But this lacks the direct connect with citizens that the PM is so skilled at. His de-facto second-in command home minister Amit Shah has barely been seen or heard in public, at least not since the West Bengal campaign when both were at the forefront.

Yet, it is not as if the government is immune to criticism. Its sensitivity is reflected in the reactions of prickly bureaucrats and haranguing party spokespersons. There is some defence of the government put out by peripheral spin doctors and those who still repose faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi. But, they are neither cogent nor effective. By all accounts, the Modi government appears to be losing the war of narratives.

In every crisis — small or big, be it in a family, organisation or government — there will be those descending to fish in troubled waters. Some of them may be pure mercenaries, while others are simply opportunists. In corporate crises, agents are often planted by competitors or may come from internal and external stakeholders unhappy with the management. In the same way, when it comes to the government, there could be the opposition or external forces working to undermine its efforts. This is part of the game and has to be dealt with professionally. There is little point in raising conspiracy theories and living in denial.

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The primary responsibility of leaders during a crisis is to instil confidence among the people. The bridge between the two Cs — of crisis and confidence — is the third C, communication. Effective communication itself is built on a set of 3 Cs — it has to be continuous, consistent and credible. This is a full time job and cannot be left to a motley set of amateurs. Becoming reactive and petulant is half the game lost. It may be difficult to modify public opinion but it is possible to moderate it.

Thus, instead of writing angry rejoinders to foreign newspaper editors, our embassies and consulates would do well to reach out to important members of the media and influencers to put the official position in perspective. This can be done by the press officers at our foreign missions or even with the help of expert media relations agencies.

A similar approach needs to be followed at home. It would be naive to believe that everyone will come around to support the government’s stand. But even if one manages to get across a point sideways, it can create the bandwidth for addressing the real issues. Media training of bureaucrats and ministers is a good place to start - but not if it creates an impression that something insidious is afoot publicly. Influence has to be earned, not demanded.

The government needs to have a communication strategy not for its own survival but for the protection of its citizens from untoward distraction and sabotage in a national calamity. There is no reason to be apologetic about “perception management”. Wrong perceptions cannot only bring down organisations and governments but also harm citizens, whose fate is intrinsically linked to tragedy, by derailing the rescue efforts.

Therefore, the Prime Minister must speak up in the interest of the close to 1.4 billion Indians who have reposed their faith in him, and give them a realistic view of how we got here, where we are now and what lies ahead. This will serve both the regime and citizens well.

Sandip Ghose is a political observer and commentator on current affairs. He tweets @sandipghose

The views expressed are personal