Many economists believe the global markets will plunge into chaos if Trump’s petulance prevails on April 2. Only time will tell whether the global economy faces a downturn and if yes, for when and how long it will last. But what’s clear is that the coming months are going to be tough for the lower middle class and the poor. If the tariff war resumes in April, inflation will hit new heights.

Washington has, till recently, been a vocal critic of trade protectionism. However, Trump administration’s actions in the last few weeks reek of the same. People close to Trump regard him as a person inclined towards protectionism and imperialism. The way he doubled down on renaming Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America betrays his imperial impulses. His statements on Canada, addressing Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau as the governor of Canada, and the threats to annex Greenland are disconcerting.

We need to seriously ponder whether Trump will dare to initiate military action against Canada and Greenland? If he does, who will stop China from annexing Taiwan and India reclaiming the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir? If this scenario ever unfolds, it will lead to a fundamental change in global order.

The old global order started giving away in 1991 when the US and its allies attacked on Iraq. At that time, the United Nations (UN), along with many powerful nations in the world, meekly capitulated in front of this alliance. A decade later, the same blood curdling game was repeated in Afghanistan. Today, the way the Ukrainian society is being deceived is reminiscent of how the US betrayed ordinary people in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It’s not a surprise that the allies who stood by the US since World War II are feeling dismayed. The way US vice-president JD Vance hectored European leaders at the Munich Security Dialogue qualifies as unprecedented impudence in geopolitics. It drew sharp criticism. Later, French president Emanuel Macron and British PM Keir Starmer were heckled in the White House, leaving many persons red faced. This boorish behaviour peaked when Zelensky was at the White House. He was badgered by both Trump and Vance in full view of TV cameras.

Zelensky returned to Kiev and surrendered to Trump. Soon, the US will have a stake in Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Questions are being asked if Russia will return the parts of Ukraine it has annexed? If yes, then how much? If Moscow can retain even 20% of the Ukrainian land, then it would be another victory of Russian expansionism, after the annexation of Crimea.

People may ask what is the outcome of the three-year-long war in Ukraine? Why did 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers die? Why have millions been subjected to ignominy and displacement?

European nations too were contributing along with the US in the Ukrainian fightback. The way things have panned out has rattled Europe. It’s clear that during the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns, the US was able to dominate the global affairs with the help of its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) allies. In Afghanistan, the US lost 2,400 soldiers whereas a total of 1,100 British, Canadian, German, French and Italian soldiers were killed.

These nations today are being threatened with a Nato pull out and are wondering why they were dragged into campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan when they had no animosity with these nations. They are forced to evaluate the cost of siding with the US.

Europe is also realising its folly of ceding the field of Artificial Intelligence to the US. We are heading towards a new world order that can upend the possibility of deadly regional contests, uprisings and terrorist tendencies. It would lead to an arms race and money spent on welfare would dry up.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal