Just some months ago, the BJP high command had run roughshod over the chief minister or chief ministerial claimants of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan without apparently triggering intra-party rumblings. But “Yogi is made of a different mettle and would not budge until convinced or cajoled,” said a party leader, close to him, who did not wish to be named.

So, neither the carrot nor the stick worked in his case as he was not willing to accept the blame for the party's poor show in the elections. It's a Hobson's choice for the high command, which wants a fresh face at the helm of affairs: The question is how. They failed in 2021 and again they are in a dilemma as they weigh the pros and cons of removing Aditynath who is said to be backed by key BJP leaders besides the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Apparently, Adityanath has made it clear to one and all that he is willing to return to his Math instead of moving to Delhi. “While he may not be indispensable, he could be vindictively damaging to the BJP as they share the same vote bank as well as agenda,” said another leader who did not wish to be named: In other words, he will divide the vote bank if not the party.

In a clear message to his detractors as well as the opposition, Adityanath recited a few lines from a poem written by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee recently at the Vidhan Sabha.

The lines were: “manushya ko chhaiye, woh paristhithyon se lade, ek swapna tute to doosra gade” ( Man should fight adverse circumstances, see another dream after one gets shattered).

The other cogent reason is that while the three BJP stalwarts – Manohar Lal Khattar, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia- had politically grown in RSS-BJP culture and were bound by the BJP’s much-acclaimed discipline, Yogi’s background is different. Though he shares the RSS ideology, he has never worn the khaki. He joined the BJP in 1998 before the Lok Sabha elections and often took umbrage publicly over the dilution of Hindutva by its former leaders.

Khattar was removed in March 2024, two months before the Lok Sabha election, while Chouhan and Scindia were unexpectedly denied the chief ministers’ chair after they had led the party to victory in their respective states. Today, Khattar is a member of Parliament, Chouhan is a cabinet minister in the Narendra Modi government and Scindia is likely to be accommodated in the pending reorganisation of the BJP at the national level.

Adityanath is not totally dependent on the BJP as he draws much of his strength from the much-revered Gorakhnath Peeth, considered high-up in the hierarchy of religious bodies. He also heads the Hindu Yuva Vahini (HYV), which was founded by him in April 2002 though he had joined the BJP before the 1998 Lok Sabha elections.

Adityanath won five consecutive Lok Sabha elections from Gorakhpur as a BJP candidate from 1998 to 2014 while his guru Mahant Avaidnath had thrice won the seat in 1989, 1991 and 1996 as a candidate of Akhil Bhartiya Hindu Mahasabha.

Political expert Nagendra, who goes by one name, recalled his meeting with Adityanth in his Math sometime in 2016. “He did not have much political ambition as he casually asked me about his future course of action. As his area of influence was limited to Gorakhpur and Devipatan divisions of East UP, I told him he should expand his political base.”

The fact remains that Adityanath became popular after becoming the chief minister of the state in 2017 as the BJP-RSS leadership utilised his saffron robe and mahant status across the country in elections to mobilise support for their agenda. He has also cultivated his image as bulldozer baba, which played out positively in building his image of a tough administrator.

Adityanath fought for the chair in 2017 which he is now refusing to relinquish. Interestingly, Keshav Prasad Maurya as BJP chief was a claimant in 2017 and being a backward face of the party is one of the frontrunners even now. As a recall, the first issue raised by Maurya soon after the 2017 elections was about HYV as he claimed that the CM was favouring ‘outsiders’ (referring to HYV volunteers) while their unchecked violent activities were harming the BJP. HYV is in abeyance, not abolished, and can be revived anytime by Yogi.

Apart from his political moorings, Adityanath is stubborn and no one knows it better than the BJP leaders themselves, who before every election in the state had to rush to Gorakhnath Math for a seat-sharing pact with Yogi to save their common vote bank from splitting.

Once in 2002, Adityanath had even fielded Radha Mohan Agarwal on an HYV ticket to defeat the official nominee of the BJP, Shiv Pratap Shukla, in state assembly elections.

People who have worked closely with Yogi are in fact surprised by the patience he is displaying amid anti-government statements by a section of leaders.

“ Yogi, that we have known, would have by now retaliated or returned to Math. But the angry man, as he is often called, has surprisingly maintained his cool,” said a political expert from Gorakhpur who doesn’t want to be named.

According to him, Yogi has the support of RSS and thousands from his own clan of Mahants. The Kanwariyas adorn T-shirts bearing his photo and claim they have a divine connection with him and a common agenda. “Before Yogi's ascent to the chief minister's chair, Mohan Bhagwat used to visit the Math frequently between 2009-2016. But after he became CM, Yogi started calling on him,” said another political expert.

“In the earlier days, the Brahmin lobby in the BJP often pinpricked him. Yogi used to get livid but the situation was managed by senior leader LK Advani," said a political expert adding: “Modi often talks about having no qualms in relinquishing power and walking away with his jhola. But they don’t know Yogi. He can anytime go back to Math, but then he will be more dangerous. BJP will suffer.”

Addressing the monsoon session of the Vidhan Sabha, Adityanath said: “I took over responsibilities of running the government not to do a mere job but to ensure people don’t suffer. This is not a fight for dignity (pratishtha), which I get more in my maath than in this position.”

In an earlier interview with HT, he had said: “I was a Yogi, and will remain a Yogi always. But the state, country and the world have seen how a Yogi who is into pure spirituality can also be a performer —Yogi, jo samaj ke liye upyogi (Yogi who is useful for the society). And I will not take a minute to return to Math once I have completed my job.”

As of now, he is meeting MLAs, trying to resolve their issues as that was one complaint against him. The CM also held a preparatory meeting for the bypolls, which was attended by the state party president and both the deputy chief ministers who had earlier boycotted the cabinet meetings. As they take individual responsibility for winning seats allotted to them, they and not the party will face the music for the losses.

Adityanath is also taking unilateral decisions that can be politically counterproductive. The BJP’s opposition to the government’s Nazul Land Bill in the Vidhan Parishad besides murmurs over the demolition of a platform where the statue of late Harishanker Tiwari, don turned politician, who was cabinet minister in several BJP governments, has again raised doubts about this temporary truce. As such the caste cauldron is creating much political unease as Rajputs are calling the shots while Brahmins and OBCs are feeling marginalised. The ruling partner, Apna Dal, has been consistently raising the issue of under-utilisation of quota and the government is denying it.

Sources in Delhi insist the plan to change the leadership is only deferred and not withdrawn as there is huge mistrust between Lucknow and Delhi. While some are waiting for the bypolls, others await the organisational revamp in Delhi.

Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.