Karnataka verdict: Anti-incumbency and a borrowed manifesto

Karnataka is the second state after Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress has formed a government. The Himachal Pradesh playbook was also re-purposed in Karnataka where the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was struggling with a strong anti-incumbency against its corrupt government. Karnataka’s results should not be naively seen as a verdict in favour of the Congress but, more importantly, an anti-incumbency mandate against the BJP.

Going into the elections in Karnataka, the Congress did not have an attractive and credible offering for the voters amid an ongoing crisis of leadership. From the voter’s perspective, it is not unusual for voters, including party loyalists, to vote against an unpopular and corrupt government, as happened in Karnataka. In such scenarios, the prime challenger, in this case, the Congress, benefits from such a situation of anti-incumbency. But just the anti-incumbency was not enough for the Congress to convince the voters to vote in its favour. This additional support came in the form of a “Guarantee Card” played by the Congress, which gave them the edge in the state. The manifesto made by the Congress makes for an impressive read at first glance. But it appears that the Congress, which is more than a century-old party ruling in several states, had to copy ideas from a decade-old party like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The five guarantees made by the Congress that resonated with Karnataka are 200 units of free electricity for every household, a promise of ₹2,000 a month to women, 10 kilos of food grain to BPL families, an unemployment allowance of Rs. 3,000 a month to graduates and free travel for women in state buses. If one were to track the journey of these promises, a simple online search would reveal that the ‘Guarantee card’ politics that the Congress used in Karnataka and previously in Himachal Pradesh is taken from the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP playbook. However, while the Congress has reaped political benefits from copying public welfare ideas, it has not yet proved the mettle of its governance in any other state ruled by it.

For the “Guarantee card” to convert into reality, it takes an honest governance model, which cuts down corruption to save money for public welfare schemes. This is the crucial test that Congress fails to clear in every state it rules. On the other hand, the AAP has not only created a model of welfare-centric politics but, going against the tradition of false promises made by political parties, has delivered on the promises in record time while also improving on the revenue front of state budgets. Electoral promises must also come with a guarantee to deliver, which the Congress, unlike the AAP, is incapable of.

Unfortunately for the people of Karnataka, the Congress does not have an excellent record regarding corruption-free governance. Before the AAP, the Congress ruled Punjab and left a legacy of institutionalised corruption. In Rajasthan, a senior Congress leader is out on the streets, protesting against the party’s allegedly soft stand on corruption. Also, people have not yet forgotten the horrors of UPA-era corruption scandals. Since corruption is at the core of the legacy that Congress brings, it would be safe to assume that, like other Congress-ruled states, the promises made to the people of Karnataka won’t be fulfilled anytime soon.

Electing the Congress also comes with the risk of Congress MLAs defecting to join the BJP, as in Karnataka in 2019. Falling short of a majority in the last assembly elections in 2018, the BJP could only form its government in 2019 with the support of rebel MLAs.

The Congress, which less than a decade ago would ridicule the idea of providing free electricity as a basic need, is now being opportunistic for the sake of power. Still, it must remember that Indian voters are becoming unforgiving. Borrowing from manifestos of other parties, combined with an anti-incumbency wave might help win a few elections, but this dishonest path will end sooner than later.

In conclusion, the Karnataka results should be analysed in a new light. The welfare-centric model of AAP now has more demand across India, which only reflects the aspirations of the people of India. Voters are now demanding more accountability from their governments. Voters across India have acknowledged Kejriwal’s ingenuity on the governance front as they raise the demand for policies matching Delhi and Punjab. It would be well-advised for traditional parties to change their course of politics of corruption and dishonesty as the Indian voters evolve to choose a credible alternative with a successful track record of implementation of welfare policies.

Reena Gupta is national spokesperson of the Aam Aadmi Party

The views expressed are personal